• Polymarket wallet compromise sparks discussion about the protocol’s security. Link

• Minnesota becomes the first state to ban prediction markets. Link

• Kalshi & Polymarket are co-defendants in new lawsuit by Rhode Island Attorney General. Link

• South Korea probes Polymarket for gambling law violations. Link

• Malta’s economy minister says the country should regulate prediction markets. Link

• 60 Minutes covers insider trading on prediction markets. Link

• More than one-third of Polymarket’s monthly notional volume comes from its top 1,000 users. Link

• Kalshi continues adding incentivized markets as a way to improve market quality. Link

• Polymarket rebates 20–25% of daily fees to market makers providing liquidity that gets taken, roughly $200K/day. Link

• Over $100M in rewards have been distributed by Polymarket across Holding Rewards, LP Rewards, Referral Fees, and Maker Rebates. Link

• Prediction markets continue posting large weekly figures, with total weekly notional volume surpassing $6.7B. Link

• HIP-4 has processed around $60M in volume since launching earlier this month. Link

• Polymarket U.S. files with the CFTC regarding the implementation of parlays. Link

• Polymarket introduces a taker tier rebate program. Link

• Taker rebates on Polymarket are set to go live on May 28. Link

• Polymarket reloads new SDKs. Link

• Polymarket Maker Rebate Calculator. Link

• Limitless is hiring for multiple positions. Link

• Two Weeks of HIP-4: A Forensic Look at Hyperliquid’s Outcome Markets. Link

📅 Events

• Markets Mixer, a prediction markets event during NY Tech Week. Link

  

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• Polymarket mentioned in a new Drake song. Link

• Criteria for obtaining the Polymarket Traders affiliate badge were announced by the team. Link

• Kalshi partnered with Interactive Brokers. Link

• Kalshi has also partnered with Madison Square Garden. Link

• KYC is now available on Polymarket. Link

• A major Las Vegas hotel reportedly terminated a prediction market conference after pressure from the Gaming Board. Link

• Last week, Kalshi generated 4x more fees than Polymarket (US + international). Link

• Predict.fun cumulative nominal trading volume surpassed $3 billion, with cumulative fees reaching $1.8 million. Link

• Kalshi co-founder said over 90% of volume comes from individuals and very small PM-focused funds. Link

• Prediction markets are the only major crypto activity in the green this year, up 32% while the rest of crypto is down. Link

• The first Meme Coin World Cup, hosted by Memecoin Prediction Markets, is live. Link

  

• Polymarket’s head of growth hints on the $POLY airdrop. Link

• A teaser introduced prediction markets inside iMessage group chats. Link

• On Bet Sizing, by Andrew Courtney. Link

• State of Prediction Markets report by Blocmates. Link

• A Game of Volatility. How prediction markets are increasingly becoming a game of volatility rather than prediction. Link

• HIP-4 vs. Kalshi vs. Polymarket: We’re Just Getting Started. Link

• Prediction News interviewed Dan Schwarz. Link

• New podcast with the founder of PolySights on how the platform catches insiders on Polymarket. Link

📅 Events

• Markets Mixer, a prediction markets event during NY Tech Week. Link

  

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• Hyperliquid’s first Bitcoin outcome market beat Polymarket and Kalshi - link

• Kalshi raised $1B at a $22B valuation - link

• Blockchain introduces prediction markets in partnership with Blockchain - link

• Arkham announces prediction markets - link

• Memecoin Prediction Markets’ World Cup is around the corner - link

• Kalshi dominated prediction markets volume in April with a 50% share - link

  

• Polymarket April fees hit a record high of $43.36M - link

• Polymarket is generating around half the fees of pumpfun - link

  

• The “non-crypto” prediction market flipped the biggest “crypto” prediction market in crypto volume on Kalshi - link

• Digging deeper into Kalshi’s activity - link

• State of Hyperliquid HIP-4 - Week 1 - link

• Deposit Wallets are live on Polymarket - link

• Polymarket users will be able to stake the upcoming $POLY token to reduce fees on the platform - link

• The exchange business FanDuel didn’t fully prepare for - link

• Benchmarks are key to scaling prediction markets institutionally - link

• Prediction markets are a skill game where novices play against experts - link

• The fastest way to lose on prediction markets - link

• Getting prediction market regulation right - link

• Can HIP-4 break the prediction market duopoly? - link

📅 Events

• Rajiv Sethi will talk about his upcoming book Engines of Prophecy: The Power and Perils of Prediction Markets (May 20-21) - link

• List of prediction markets conferences by Mick Bransfield - link

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• Brazil blocks Kalshi, Polymarket in sweeping ban citing investor protections - link

• Polymarket upgraded with $pUSD, a new order book, lower gas fees, and $1M in liquidity rewards - link

• Kalshi completes first block trade, backed by Jump Trading - link

• Polymarket seeks full CFTC approval for its main platform - link

• The fascinating history of prediction markets in the US - link

• Bloomberg reports most traders are losing money, and a significant amount in many cases, on Polymarket - link

• Andrew Courtney points out errors on Bloomberg's article- link

• Is UMA oracle system being corrupted by self-interested traders? - link

• Polymarket Builders enables builder fees on orders routed through other apps - link

• Did Polymarket just change its mind about insider trading? - link

• List of prediction markets events during NY Tech Week - link

• Kalshi owns the majority of prediction market volume. They've held +50% market share for all of April 2026, eroding Polymarket's lead - link

• Polymarket breaks $500M in TVL for the first time since the 2024 US election peak - link

• Identifying Smart Money from Polymarket’s New Collateral Token pUSD - link

• What the data tells about wash trading on Polymarket - link

• Who really drives volume on Polymarket? - link

• 30%+ of Redeems are now Auto-Redeemed on Polymarket - link

• One tap trading is live on 5m and 15m crypto markets on Polymarket - link

• Kalshi launches markets on music streams - link

• XO Market launches an Ambassador Program - link

• A Second Identity: Prediction Markets as Financial Derivatives - link

• HIP-4: The Business Case for Outcome Markets - link

• Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything? - link

• The Start of DeFi on Prediction Market - link

• Legibility: When insider trading becomes a national security issue, not just a financial one - link

• Prediction markets have an inescapable insider trading problem - link

• Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on The Case for Prediction Markets - link

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• US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400,000 on Maduro raid on Polymarket - link

• Paris airport hair dryer incident disrupts weather markets on Polymarket - link

• Polymarket reportedly in talks to raise at a ~$15B valuation - link

• Gemini and Coinbase sued in New York over prediction markets framed as gambling - link

• Kalshi suspends 3 users for betting on their own political campaigns - link

• Bloomberg reports Polymarket losing ground amid operational challenges targeting US users - link

• Kalshi reportedly processing more daily notional volume than FanDuel does annually - link

• Limitless surpasses $1B in monthly volume for the first time - link

• Weekly fees on Polymarket reach $8.3M - link

• Data breakdown shows $170K loss in 95 minutes using Kalshi combo/parlay feature - link

• Polymarket rolls out auto-redeeming feature - link

• Polymarket announces upcoming perpetual futures - link

• Jupiter announces prediction markets integration on Telegram - link

• Funding Predicts introduces capital layer and prop trading model - link

• What most people misunderstand about prediction markets - link

• The problem with CLOB - link

• Why do some win on Polymarket, when most people clearly don't? - link

• Kalshi: the CME for events - link

• An Open Letter to Polymarket: The Lead Is Slipping. Time to Bring It Home - link

• Polymarket launching perps is either their best or absolutely worst decision they could have made - link

• Prediction markets are becoming the most powerful tool in finance - link

• Episode #1 of The Supercycle Podcast - link

📅 Events

• Philly Forecasting & Prediction Markets Meetup April 30th (link)

• If you're building in prediction markets, make sure to fill out Aggie's list:

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• The current state of prediction markets: sector map by Stacy Muur (link)

• $1T in prediction market volume by 2030? (link)

• Kalshi reaches ~$3B weekly volume, up from ~$100M YoY (link)

• Paradigm critiques Kalshi’s claims on non-sports growth (link)

• eToro shares rise following prediction market move (link)

• Study shows top 1% of Polymarket users capture 84% of profits, mostly at the expense of casual traders (link)

• Should Polymarket airdrop tokens only to those who lost money, proportional to their losses? (link)

• Will prediction markets pull traders from perps? (link)

• Polymarket just cleared $500M+ in weekly geopolitics volume - a new ATH (link)

• Open interest composition differences: Kalshi vs Polymarket (link)

• Polymarket weekly fees approach $7M (link)

  

• Academics introduce Adjudication Risk Index introduced for Polymarket resolutions (link)

• Polymarket launches $5M bug bounty program (link)

• “Nothing Ever Happens” bot auto-buys No across non-sports markets (link)

• Kalshi teases upcoming update: “something new” (link)

• ~300 projects live in Polymarket Builders Program (link)

• Prediction markets: they grow up so fast (link)

• Anatomy of Polymarket’s fastest markets (link)

• Why AMMs failed in prediction markets (link)

• From betting to trading: Kalshi’s impact on sports markets (link)

• The Dark Horse of Prediction Markets (link)

📅 Events

• Prediction Conference is happening in Las Vegas during April 22–24 (link)

• Philly Forecasting & Prediction Markets Meetup April 30th (link)
  

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• Polymarket announces protocol updates, including changes to its order book and a native stablecoin rollout (link)

• Prediction markets are a duopoly, but not for long (link)

• Kalshi becomes the first platform onboarded to IC360’s self-exclusion hub (link)

• Kalshi partners with Fiscal API and Bending to launch KPI-based markets for companies (link)

• Polymarket begins rolling out an ML-powered recommendation engine to select users (link)

• Binance Wallet integrates PredictFun to offer prediction markets (link)

• Kalshi launches livestreams and live scores for esports markets (link)

• Fox News integrates with Kalshi (link)

• 84% of Polymarket traders are unprofitable, with only 2% earning over $1,000 total profit (link)

• Polymarket daily fees hit $1.9M (link)

• Polymarket surpasses Polygon in revenue after monetization (link)

• Prediction market revenue for April 1–7 reported (link)

• Polymarket records 9 consecutive days with over $900K in daily fees (link)

• Monthly notional volume reached ~$26.75B in January, with March near similar levels (link)

• How prediction markets and perps reacted to the Iran war oil shock (link)

• Leverage in prediction markets (link)

• HIP4 and outcomes nobody talks about (link)

• Prediction markets are positioned to replace large portions of investing

📅 Events

• The Odds, a prediction market-focused event during Paris Blockchain Week (link)

• Prediction Conference is happening in Las Vegas during April 22–24 (link)
  Check out the speakers lineup.

  

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• Not Kalshi or Polymarket? ADI Chain launches Predictstreet, the Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026. Link

  

• Polymarket launches $5M liquidity incentive program for April. Link

• Paradigm is developing a prediction markets trading terminal. Link

• Polymarket becomes the Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of LaLiga. Link

• Polymarket launches traditional asset markets (equities, indices, commodities) powered by Pyth Network. Link

• Prediction markets rivalry heats up. Link

• CFTC to 'defer to leagues' as NFL calls for tighter prediction market guardrails. Link

• Washington sues Kalshi over “disguised gambling.” Link

• After turning on the fee switch, Polymarket earned ~$600K in a single day. Link

• Polymarket’s annual revenue may exceed $400M. Link

• Does more volume make prediction markets more accurate? Link

• Prediction market transactions surged 2,838% YoY to 191M in March. Link

• TVL on PredictFun jumps 30% following news of integration with Binance Wallet. Link

• Polymarket's all time top trader earned $22M, with $8M from a single bet. Link

• Polymarket launches competitive trading markets in partnership with Legend Trade. Link

• The Probability Layers Are Coming. Link

• Who Polices Polymarket? Link (Video)

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• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the NY Stock Exchange, announced an investment of up to $2B in Polymarket. Link

• US lawmakers move to ban sports betting on prediction markets. Link

• Lawmakers have introduced five different bills this year to regulate prediction markets. Link

• Prediction market rivals Shayne Coplan and Tarek Mansour back a new venture fund. Link

• Kalshi launches a whistleblower function to identify insider trading. Link

• Polymarket announced new market integrity rules across its CFTC-regulated US exchange and DeFi platform. Link

• Kalshi partners with ARK Invest to launch research markets. Link

• The top 1% of traders on Polymarket generate ~75% of total platform volume. Link

• Polymarket’s active user trajectory mirrors early-stage growth patterns seen on major centralized exchanges. Link

• Retail traders perform worse on prediction markets than on sportsbooks, according to new research. Link

• Castle Labs published a breakdown of Polymarket’s fee structure. Link

• Estimated Polymarket revenue under the current fee structure ranges between $800K and $1M per day. Link

• Unusual Whales released an MCP that gives Claude direct access to prediction market data. Link

• Polymarket expanded its referral program to all traders with more than $10K in volume. Link

• Polymarket introduced a full-stack template for building prediction market applications. Link

• Messari's research on Polymarket (POLY) potential valuation. Link

• Is Polymarket a Retail Product or a Pro Trading Venue? Link

• You Are the Exit Liquidity for AI agents on Polymarket. Link

• Polymarket Fee Rollout: Revenue Impact and Market Implications. Link

• The most important participant in a prediction market is an insider trader. Link

📅 Events

• Prediction Conference is happening in Las Vegas during April 22–24. Link

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• Polymarket launches The Situation Room, a bar dedicated to monitoring live markets and global events. Link

• Kalshi offers $1B for a perfect bracket during NCAA March Madness. Link

• MEXC launches its own prediction markets product. Link

• Polymarket launches 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, and 1d up/down markets on DOGE, HYPE, and BNB. Link

• Kalshi reportedly raises $1B at a $22B valuation. Link

• Polymarket integrates market data into Perplexity. Link

• Argentina blocks access to Polymarket, citing operation as an unlicensed betting platform without identity verification. Link

• Polymarket releases a full-stack template for building prediction market applications - Link

• The Market Gazette, an AI-generated prediction market news feed, launches on Kalshinomics - Link

• Nexus Data Labs publishes a deep dive into prediction markets data - Link

• Polymarket 5-minute crypto markets reach up to $60M/day in notional volume - Link

• Polymarket records more daily transactions than most L1 blockchains - Link

• Kalshi hits record weekly volume near $3B ahead of NCAA March Madness - Link

• Prediction market platforms generated measurable revenue over the last 30 days, according to industry data dashboards - Link

• Allium identifies 564 wallets betting $2.9M on the Iran war outcome across prediction markets - Link

• Are traders on Kalshi being profiled? - Link

• Prediction Markets: The Path to $1 Trillion and What Needs to Happen Next - Link

• The State of Prediction Markets, Q1 2026 - Link

📅 Events

• Prediction Conference is happening in Las Vegas during April 22–24. Link

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• The CFTC released guidance for new prediction market contract listings, with Chairman Rostin Behnam referring to prediction markets as “the asset class.” - Source

• Full coverage on the new CFTC guidance - Read

• Earlier in the week, the CFTC Chairman also stated blockchain-based prediction markets can help counter disinformation and debanking risks through decentralized truth discovery - Watch

• Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said the regulated prediction market platform is committed to operating within the rule of law - Watch

• Polymarket has partnered with Palantir and TWG to develop a surveillance system designed to detect manipulation and insider trading across its sports markets - Read

• Brokers, hedge funds, and other institutional investors are beginning to provide clients access to Kalshi’s event contracts - Read

• Kalshi announced a partnership with Brazil’s largest brokerage as part of its first international expansion - Read

• Why Brazil matters in this context - Read

• The Wall Street Journal featured “Kalshi girls” in coverage of the company’s effort to expand beyond sports and its core male user base - Read

• The Prediction Markets landscape map - Read

• Over a third of American voters have already used prediction markets - Read

• Prediction markets recorded a new all-time high of 47.26M weekly transactions, led by Polymarket with 26.26M - Read

  

• Polymarket activity now represents a dominant share of total transactions and gas consumption on Polygon - Read

• Data shows 92.7% of Polymarket market-making strategies are profitable - Read

• A trader reportedly turned $200 into $83,000 betting that Elon Musk would not tweet during a specific market window - Read
  

  

• Limitless is processing over 50% of Kalshi’s crypto-related volume and nearly 20% of Polymarket’s - Read

• PolyGun announced the strategic acquisition of Polymarket Analytics - Read

• A breakdown of strategies for trading the 15-minute $BTC prediction market - Read

• The Big 5 of 2025: an overview of the largest global prediction market platforms - Read

• Shane Coplan on how prediction markets provide real-time, objective signals on geopolitics - Watch

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• Nasdaq filed to launch its own prediction market - Read

• Kalshi and Polymarket faced a trading halt in Nevada following court rulings - Read

• The Coalition for Prediction Markets called for federal regulation instead of a 50-state framework - Read

• War-related prediction markets drew criticism following the U.S. strike on Iran - Read

• A Polymarket trader reportedly made $500K betting on the U.S. strike on Iran - Read

• Monthly prediction market data recap - Read

• Oil rallied sharply and prediction markets moved alongside it - Read

• Top trader Ivan shared losses during February and during war markets trading - Read

• Opinion Labs briefly reached $8.1B in monthly volume, rivaling Polymarket and Kalshi - Read

• Kalshi launched the Kalshi Election Hub - Read

• Controversy on Kalshi market resolution - Read

• More on Kalshi market resolution and rules - Read

• Polymarket launched real estate futures markets - Read

• Kalshi partnered with Bezel to launch markets on iconic watch price movements - Read

• Kairos launched a prediction market trading terminal - Read

• PolySigma launched an interactive learning platform for Polymarket traders - Read

• Opinion Labs launched its foundation website and S1 airdrop, followed by a sharp TVL drop - Read

• Kalshi stated it does not offer “death markets” - Read

• Polymarket removed the nuclear attack market - Read

• Allium Labs launched a dashboard to track unusual wallet movements on Polymarket - Read

• dFlow integrated Kalshi on its Solana frontend - Read

• Limitless-exchange SDK crossed 1,200 weekly downloads, a 4x increase in two weeks - Read

• Space revealed the second beta wave for its leveraged markets on Solana - Read

• On the moral debate around prediction markets - Read

• Insider trading in prediction markets, feature or bug? - Read

• On war markets - Read

• Prediction markets without liquidity providers - Read

• How to become a quant from scratch - Read

• Prediction Index annual report - Read

• Prediction market technology stack 2.0 - Read

• The latest Dollar Trade Show featuring Johnny from Prospect Markets - Watch

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Kalshi launches its Election Hub

Kalshi unveiled a dedicated Election Hub, consolidating its political markets into a single interface ahead of what is expected to be an intense U.S. election cycle.

The hub aggregates contracts related to the Primaries, making it easier for traders to track and trade political forecasts in one place.

Political markets have historically been among the most liquid prediction markets. With election activity ramping up, Kalshi tries to be positioning itself as a central venue for election forecasting in regulated markets.

Prediction markets face fresh regulatory pressure in Nevada

Regulatory tensions resurfaced this week after reports that Kalshi and Polymarket faced trading halts in Nevada following court rulings affecting prediction market activity in the state.

The incident highlights a broader issue: the fragmented regulatory environment in the United States. Instead of a single federal framework, prediction markets must often navigate a patchwork of state-level rules.

Industry groups are increasingly pushing for federal oversight. The Coalition for Prediction Markets reiterated calls for a unified regulatory structure, arguing that national rules would be more effective than a 50-state regulatory patchwork.

Kalshi expands markets to luxury watch prices

Kalshi announces a partnership with Bezel, enabling contracts tied to the price movements of iconic luxury watches.

The collaboration expands the category of markets focused on collectible assets, since just a few months Kalshi partnered with StockX to provide markets on Labubu futures and sneaker indexes.

Traders will be able to speculate on whether the value of specific watch models rises or falls over time. The move signals how prediction markets are expanding beyond politics and macro events into culture, alternative assets and collectibles.

Real estate futures go live on Polymarket

Polymarket is also broadening its scope. The platform has just launched real estate futures, allowing traders to bet on housing market trends.

Housing prices are among the most widely tracked economic indicators, yet tools for trading their future direction remain limited. Prediction markets may offer a new way for participants to express views on property markets without directly holding real estate assets.

Opinion Labs volume briefly rivals major platforms

Opinion Labs saw an explosive surge in activity, reaching $8.1 billion in monthly trading volume at its peak. At that level, the platform briefly rivaled major prediction market venues such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

However, the surge proved short-lived. Shortly after unveiling its foundation website and announcing an upcoming S1 airdrop, the platform’s total value locked (TVL) fell sharply, indicating liquidity quickly exited the ecosystem.

Oil rally drives prediction market activity

Oil prices have been rising rapidly, and prediction markets are reacting in real time.

Traders have been increasingly active in contracts tied to energy prices and geopolitical developments affecting supply. The surge highlights how prediction markets often track macro volatility, particularly when commodities experience sharp moves, especialy during the weekends, when traditional markets are closed.

• Insider Trading in Prediction Markets: Feature or Bug? - Read

• Prediction Index Annual Report - Read

• Prediction Market Technology Stack 2.0 - Read

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🎯 The Market That Priced the U.S. Strike on Iran

When news broke of U.S. strikes on Iran, prediction markets had already moved.

Polymarket odds had significantly shifted before mainstream confirmation, reinforcing the narrative that markets aggregate dispersed information faster than traditional media.

But one trade stood out.

An account reportedly turned $87,000 into roughly $500,000, placing a large position about 71 minutes before the news became public.

This reignited the recurring debate:

• Was this insider trading?

• Was it satellite analysis and open-source intelligence?

• Or simply a well-informed but legal inference?

Prediction markets operate in a grey zone between public data aggregation and material non-public information. The transparency of blockchain transactions makes suspicious activity visible, but not necessarily provable.

The episode underscores a broader industry need for:

1. Clear definitions of material non-public information

2. Surveillance frameworks

3. Enforcement mechanisms

Without these, accusations will continue to surface in high-impact geopolitical markets.

On the other hand, we don't ignore the role of insider trading on prediction markets.

⚖️ “Death Markets” and Kalshi’s Resolution Controversy

Following developments around Iran’s Supreme Leader, Kalshi closed a related market under a special rule rather than resolving it Yes or No.

The backlash was immediate.

Critics labeled it a “death market” controversy. Kalshi's CEO pointed out that the resolution mechanism was clearly stated in the contract rules.

One counterargument well pointed that almost any market can indirectly relate to death.

• If a star athlete dies, sports markets are affected.

• If a CEO dies, equity markets move.

The issue is not whether death is involved, but whether resolution rules are:

• Transparent

• Predefined

• Consistently enforced

In prediction markets, credibility rests on contract clarity.

An article titled “Prediction market bets on Iran strikes stoke insider trading, ethics scrutiny” highlighted ethical concerns around profiting from geopolitical conflict.

Meanwhile, opinion pieces argued that war markets are not inherently immoral, they are mechanisms for aggregating expectations.

The core tension:

• Are these markets exploitative?

• Or are they informational tools reflecting collective belief?

As prediction markets move into geopolitics, the moral conversation will likely grow louder.

🏦 Nasdaq Files to Launch a Prediction Market

In a major signal for institutional adoption, Nasdaq reportedly filed to launch its own prediction market product.

If successful, this would mark:

• Traditional exchange infrastructure entering event contracts

• Increased regulatory legitimacy

• Greater capital inflows

Prediction markets are increasingly viewed not as novelty betting tools, but as information markets with pricing power.

As Nick Preszler stated, “Nasdaq's move into prediction markets should give us an preview of what ICE will be launching with Polymarket”.

Institutional interest suggests the category is transitioning from fringe to financial infrastructure.

📊 Monthly Data Recap: Volume Keeps Climbing

A new monthly recap from Dash highlighted continued growth across major platforms.

Key takeaways:

• Kalshi led in notional volume, roughly 20 percent ahead of Polymarket

• Polymarket recorded significantly more transactions, suggesting broader retail participation

• Spot trading volumes across prediction markets are reportedly up 29x year over year

The divergence between higher notional volume on Kalshi and higher transaction count on Polymarket points to different user profiles, larger average ticket sizes versus higher retail frequency.

As U.S. regulatory clarity improves, the competitive dynamic between these two platforms will likely intensify.

🧩 The Token vs Equity Debate

This week, we had a pretty interesting conversation with Johnny from Prospect Markets, a publicly traded company in Canada building in the prediction markets space. That discussion reignited a fundamental structural debate:

Should prediction market platforms issue tokens, equity, or both?

Key tensions:

• Tokens create short-term price volatility pressure

• Equity structures introduce disclosure, regulatory cost, and capital constraints

• Hybrid models risk misaligned incentives between token holders and shareholders

Some builders argue that tying product perception to token price can damage long-term credibility. If the token chart looks bad, user confidence can collapse, regardless of product quality.

As the industry matures, capital structure design may prove as important as market design.

For a full breakdown of the topic, check out our conversation from our last live:

• On War Markets - Read

• Prediction Markets Without Liquidity Providers - Read

• Kalshi, Polymarket Under Fire For War-Related Trades After U.S. Iran Strike - Read

• Thousands of Amateur Gamblers Are Beating Wall Street Ph.D.s - Read

• How I'd Become a Quant If I Had to Start Over Tomorrow - Read

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• Netherlands bans Polymarket over “illegal gambling services” - Read

• Over $20M in volume traded on the ZackXBT market - Read

• ZackXBT insider trading saga is the most crypto thing ever - Read

• ZachXBTinsider trading saga unfolds - Read

• Kalshi releases statement regarding insider trading - Read

• California congressional candidate and MrBeast employee targeted by Kalshi on insider trading - Read

• Kalshi issues first insider trading bans - Read

• Kalshi removes affiliate badges after X updates paid partnerships policy - Read

• The badge war is over - Read

• Ads disclaimer discussion on X - Read

• Additional read on ads disclaimer - Read

• Nikita Bier criticizes prediction markets on X - Read

• Impact of 5 and 15 minute crypto markets on prediction markets - Read

• Traders migrate to prediction markets citing structural simplicity - Read

• New dashboard tracking prediction market accuracy - Read

• Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison - Read

• Kalshi expands to o1Exchange - Read

• Ultramarkets points program goes live - Read

• Polymarket bets on AI agents for distribution - Read

• Polymarket teases TikTok integration - Read

• Limitless is betting on builders - Read

• Account security reminder for Polymarket users - Read

• Prediction Markets Eat DeFi - Read

• The Edge, Polymarket becomes Protocol - Read

• The Market Always Wins - Read

• Polymarket just switched on the money printer - Read

• The best tool to farm the $POLY airdrop - Read

• The FIFA World Cup meets prediction markets - Read

• How to Become a Quant for Prediction Markets, complete roadmap - Read

• The Dollar Trade Show latest episode featuring Ballies and 24Casts - Watch

• Prediction Markets, insider trading vs regulatory opportunity - Watch

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🔎 The ZackXBT Market Explodes Past $20M in Volume

The combined markets related to the announced insider trading exposé by ZackXBT generated over $20 million in trading volume.

The premise was simple: which entity would be exposed in his next insider trading investigation? And multiple markets where created around that topic.

Large positions accumulated early, concentrated in a handful of newly created accounts. When the news dropped that Axiom was the target of ZackXBT's exposé those accounts reportedly cleared hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit.

The result reignited a core debate: are prediction markets truth machines, or insider playgrounds?

⚖️ Kalshi Publicly Targets Insider Trading

In parallel, Kalshi announced enforcement actions related to insider trading.

Two cases stood out:

• A California congressional candidate allegedly trading on markets tied to his own race

• An individual connected to MrBeast participating in markets involving his content

Kalshi framed the move as a step toward preserving market integrity within a regulated framework.

Regulated venues are signaling active oversight and enforcement, while permissionless venues, by design, allow open participation. The question is no longer theoretical, it is operational.

🧠 Insider Trading: Feature or Bug?

Yesterday we hosted a Space discussion reflected a split that continues to define the industry.

Argument for “feature”
If prediction markets exist to aggregate information as quickly and accurately as possible, then participants with superior knowledge increase accuracy. In that framing, insiders accelerate price discovery.

Argument for “bug”
If traders believe the other side systematically possesses asymmetric information, participation declines. Liquidity suffers. Confidence erodes.

The Suez Canal analogy resurfaced:
If the goal is to know whether it’s open or closed, the trader on the ship may be the most accurate source of truth.

But the counterpoint is equally clear. Markets can influence behavior. When resolution depends on a small number of actors, financial incentives may distort outcomes.

The long-term tension is unresolved, but as cross-platform trading grows between Polymarket and Kalshi, price discrepancies tend to close quickly. If one platform restricts insiders and another does not, arbitrage should theoretically equalize probabilities.

Whether that preserves accuracy, or simply redistributes insider activity, remains to be seen.

🤖 Polymarket Bets on AI Agents for Distribution

Another theme gaining traction is distribution via AI agents.

Polymarket is exploring AI-driven distribution mechanics, with agents potentially interacting with markets, surfacing data, and amplifying visibility.

If markets become machine-readable primitives for AI systems, liquidity and attention dynamics could shift dramatically.

That evolution introduces a second layer to the insider debate:

When agents trade based on structured data feeds, does the edge belong to humans with private knowledge, or machines parsing signals faster?

🏷️ The “Badge War” is over

Accounts affiliated with prediction platforms had been aggressively posting automated engagement content. Following public criticism, badge policies shifted and affiliate visibility was reduced.

Some view it as cleanup. Others see it as ecosystem friction between platforms competing for distribution.

Either way, attention remains a scarce asset.

• How to Become a Quant for Prediction Markets - Read

• The Fifa World Cup meets prediction markets - Read

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This week’s live show brought together builders working at the intersection of AI and prediction markets, highlighting how quickly the landscape is evolving

Ballies focuses on sports prediction markets where users compete either against other players or directly against an AI model rather than trading simple binary outcomes. The platform offers a free-roll mode, a decentralized ScoreStack format combining three-game bundles, and a “You vs AI” mode. With modest entry sizes, around five to twenty dollars, and roughly two thousand active users, Ballies is expanding into cricket to capture Indian demand and positioning the FIFA World Cup as a major onboarding event.

On another front, 24Casts is building AI agents that price headline risk in real time by continuously monitoring high-volume prediction markets and applying a proprietary jump diffusion model to estimate how new information should move probabilities. The system incorporates historical event frequency, volatility timing patterns, and a coefficient designed to account for potential insider front-running. In addition to its agent-based forecasts, 24Casts offers two index-style products, a geopolitical “Situation Index” and a Trump-focused “Trumponomics” index with term structure dynamics, all delivered via API so traders and market makers can integrate the data directly into their own automated strategies.

Here you can watch the full conversation:

⏱️ 5 & 15 Minute Crypto Markets Explode

5-minute and 15-minute up/down crypto markets surged on Polymarket.

• 5-minute markets hit 31% of total volume in their first week

• The following week, they climbed to 70%

• Liquidity remained shallow, around $256 for 5-min markets and ~$700 for 15-min

Traders are deploying bots to capture spreads and farm liquidity incentives. The structure favors latency, automation, and short settlement cycles.

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🧠 Vitalik on the Future of Prediction Markets

Vitalik Buterin recently commented that prediction markets have far greater societal potential than is currently being realized. His argument suggests that many existing markets focus too heavily on mainstream entertainment or short-term speculation instead of high-impact governance and coordination problems.

This sparked debate. On one side, the argument is that prediction markets should prioritize questions with meaningful societal consequences. On the other, entertainment itself is a form of utility. Sports markets and short-duration markets create engagement, liquidity, and data.

The broader takeaway is that the ecosystem is still defining its identity. There is tension between idealism and pragmatism, but growth continues regardless.

🇳🇱 Netherlands Bans Polymarket

Regulators in the Netherlands moved to block access to Polymarket, citing “illegal gambling services”, according to reporting from Decrypt.

The development adds to ongoing regulatory pressure facing prediction markets globally.

📊 New Accuracy Dashboard for Prediction Markets

A new public dashboard tracks historical accuracy across prediction markets, providing traders and researchers with performance benchmarks.

📱 Polymarket Teases TikTok-Style Feed

A new social discovery interface is being teased, potentially introducing a TikTok-style scrolling feed for markets on Polymarket.

The move suggests a shift toward entertainment-first distribution and broader retail onboarding.

🛡️ Security and Wallet Risk

Operational security remains a concern. Polymarket accounts rely on wallet infrastructure, and users farming potential airdrops across multiple wallets increase their exposure surface. Phishing attempts remain active, and losing access to a wallet can mean losing both funds and account history.

• Prediction Markets Eat DeFi - Read

• The Edge: Polymarket becomes Protocol - Read

• The Market Always Wins - Read

• Polymarket just switched on the money printer - Read

• This Polymarket bot made me $371,529 in one night - Read

• The best tool to farm the $POLY Airdrop - Read

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• Vitalik Buterin calls prediction markets financial infrastructure, critiques over-focus on crypto price bets and sports gambling → Link

• Kalshi and Tradeweb partner to accelerate institutional adoption in prediction markets → Link

• CFTC reaffirms exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets in U.S. Circuit Court filing → Link

• Bitwise files for prediction market-backed ETFs under the brand PredictionShares → Link

• Substack partners with Polymarket to integrate native market data tools → Link

  

• One of the largest options trading firms is hiring a Senior Trader for prediction markets → Link

• Business Insider covers users reporting losses on Kalshi and Polymarket → Link

• Polymarket store is open → Link

• X’s Nikita Bier comments on prediction market posts, receives community backlash → Link

• “Big week for prediction markets” recap → Link

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• From $100 to $1,000,000 with 5-min markets → Link

• Overview of Polymarket growth since the U.S. presidential election → Link

• Polymarket removes 500ms taker delay on crypto markets → Link

• New Fed study references Kalshi data → Link

• 5-minute ETH, SOL, and XRP markets now live on Polymarket → Link

• Sponsoring market rewards go live on Polymarket, user-generated markets next → Link

• User-added rewards are live on Polymarket → Link

• Tron deposits now natively supported on Polymarket → Link

• Public Polymarket U.S. APIs and SDKs are live → Link

• Polymarket acquires Dome to enhance developer experience → Link

• New improved Polymarket docs are live → Link

• Overview of Polymarket AI agent ecosystem → Link

• Fireplace raises $1.5M to build a trading terminal for prediction markets → Link

• “When you get drained on Polymarket, you lose more than funds” → Read

• Prediction markets create a public good: probabilistic truth → Read

• ETFs with Predictions. Ready for Prime Time? → Read

• Everything known about $POLY → Read

• Polymarket’s Edge, Kalshi’s Opportunity → Read

• Launch a Polymarket trading bot using Synth and Openclaw → Read

• Subsidizing Signal → Read

• Polymarket Sponsor Rewards: Complete Guide → Read

• The Market Always Wins → Read

• Prediction Markets are the Agentic Bazaar → Read

• How to Use Prediction Market Data Like Hedge Funds → Read

• 742 trades to test optimal region for 5-minute Polymarket bots → Read

• New Indexed Podcast episode with Dash on prediction markets → Watch

• Interview with Andrew Courtney on finding edge in prediction markets → Watch

• Patrick Scott on what prediction markets are used for → Watch

• “So we’re betting on everything now?” → Watch

• A Public Probability Layer, live from ETH Denver → Watch

📬 BEFORE YOU GO — SUBSCRIBE, FOLLOW, WATCH

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🧠 Vitalik: Infrastructure or Dopamine?

On a recent post, Vitalik Buterin described prediction markets as financial infrastructure, while criticizing the sector’s heavy focus on crypto price bets and sports gambling.

The argument: prediction markets are prioritizing dopamine-driven bets like crypto prices and sports, and this reliance on “naive traders” fosters a “corposlop” culture that undermines long-term societal value.

Coverage amplified the debate, framing prediction markets as a powerful but under-optimized coordination tool.

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🎯 Polymarket Introduces Sponsored Market Rewards

Polymarket has launched sponsoring market rewards, with user-generated markets next.

“Hedge funds, educational institutions, and everyday people are now able to sponsor liquidity rewards to get more reliable Polymarket forecasts”.

This marks a structural shift toward decentralized market creation and incentive design.

Let’s wait and see what comes next.

⚖️ CFTC Reasserts Authority

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reaffirmed exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets in a U.S. Circuit Court filing.

The move reinforces federal oversight in the United States and signals continued regulatory scrutiny of event contracts. Unfortunately, that doesn’t solve the myriad state-level regulatory battles happening across the US.

📈 Bitwise Files for Prediction Market ETFs

Bitwise Asset Management filed for prediction market–backed ETFs under the brand name “PredictionShares.”

If approved, this would represent a major step toward packaging prediction exposure into traditional financial rails.

Related reading: ETFs with Predictions. Ready for Prime Time? explores the institutional viability of the concept. Link below.

🛒 The Polymarket Store Opens

The “New York City’s first free grocery store” is a marketing initiative that follows Kalshi’s “free food” campaign from earlier this month.

According to Polymarket, to pop-up food store served 3 million meal donation.

• ETFs with Predictions. Ready for Prime Time? - Read

• Everything known about $POLY - Read

• Polymarket’s Edge, Kalshi’s Opportunity - Read

• Launch a Polymarket Trading Bot Using Synth and Openclaw in Under an Hour - Read

• Indexed Podcast interviews Dash about Polymarket vs Kalshi data transparency - Watch

• How to find edge in prediction markets by asking: who am I actually trading against? Interview with Andrew Courtney - Watch

• New video from Patrick Scott: what prediction markets are actually used for and why they can be genuinely useful - Watch

• So we’re betting on everything now? - Watch

📬 BEFORE YOU GO — SUBSCRIBE, FOLLOW, WATCH

• Follow @DollarTrade & our editor on X

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• $POLY token launch reported by Decrypt - Read

• Community reactions to $POLY announcement - Read

• $POLY potential valuation - Read

• $POLY pre-IPO shares now live on Whales Market - Read

• Jump Trading to gain small stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket in exchange for liquidity provision - Read

• Polymarket flips Coinbase in monthly traffic - Read

• Kalshi partners with Sleeper to expand distribution - Read

• Kalshi seeks US approval to offer margin trading - Read

• CFTC Chairman expresses support for prediction markets - Read

• Risks highlighted in prediction market outcomes - Read

• Polymarket partners with Circle for faster execution - Read

• Largest Polymarket whale reportedly hacked, losses exceed $1M - Read

• Flow Prediction Markets API surpasses 400 apps since December launch - Read

• Vlad Tenev refers to a prediction markets “super cycle” - Read

• ICE unveils Polymarket Signals & Sentiment tool - Read

• Polymarket partners with Kaito to launch attention markets - Read

• Vanity Fair profiles Kalshi and Polymarket CEOs - Read

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• Super Bowl drives top volume week for Kalshi - Read

• Deep liquidity observed in main Super Bowl market - Read

• $837K wager placed on New England to lose - Read

• Kalshi hits ATH in open interest and combos volume - Read

• Ongoing issues with market rules highlighted - Read

• Insider trading history of Super Bowl markets revisited - Read

• Kalshi responds to insider trading discussions - Read

• Additional insider trading commentary - Read

• Tarek from Kalshi addresses insider trading on national TV - Read

• Discussion on insider trading consequences - Read

• Cardi B market resolution discrepancies raised - Read

• “Return of Jesus” market outperforms Bitcoin over ~5 years - Read

• Power of token incentives to drive liquidity - Read

• Tribal gaming exclusivity faces pressure from prediction markets - Read

• Animoca Brands publishes report on prediction markets - Read

• “Resolution Is the Product in Prediction Markets” - Read

• Copy-trading on Polymarket - Read

• Breakdown of trading bot algorithms - Read

• Moltbook agents allegedly steal arbitrage bot - Read

• Guide to setting up Clawdbot for Polymarket - Read

• Post-mortem on failed Polymarket bot launch - Read

• “When Prediction Markets Enter the Newsroom” - Read

• “Prediction Markets Reborn: Solving the Tetralemma” - Read

• “Where Polymarket Still Misprices Reality” - Read

• NYT: Amateur gamblers outperform Wall Street PhDs - Read

• Sportsbook veterans vs financial firms in shared markets - Read

• The 7 axes of prediction markets - Read

• The Autopsy: Reading a Polymarket whale - Read

• Microstructure of wealth transfer in prediction markets - Read

• Kalshi and Polymarket Rewrite the Super Bowl Playbook for Pro Gamblers - Read

• Animoca Brands publish a report on prediction markets - Read

• Resolution Is the Product in Prediction Markets - Read

• 0 to Automated: Copy-Trading on Polymarket Without Writing a Single Line of Code - Read

• Break down on trading bots operation algorithm - Read

• Moltbook agents stole an arbitrage bot from a Polymarket developer - Read

• A friend of mine launched Polymarket bot, and it failed. The true story - Read

• When Prediction Markets Enter the Newsroom - Read

• The Dollar Trade Show latest episode featuring Dash and JW - Watch

• Small Dog Trading: Episode 2 - Watch

• Demystifying Prediction Markets Beyond Volume Charts - Watch

• Inside the mind of the world’s #1 Polymarket - Interview with Domer - Watch

📬 BEFORE YOU GO — SUBSCRIBE, FOLLOW, WATCH

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