🥊 Polymarket x UFC, Coinbase x Kalshi, US Beta Rumors & Tulip King Pain
GM, GM — we are back. Diego live from Buenos Aires with the mustache arc, Nick freezing up north, and prediction markets refusing to take a day off. This week had everything.
📅 On This Day 1 Year Ago — The FBI Visit That Became a Meme
We kicked off the show with @shayne_coplan’s anniversary tweet — the day he got raided by the FBI for building Polymarket.
One year later?
He’s being pictured next to Dana White and Hasbulla, fundraising at unicorn levels, and thinking about a US relaunch.
The glow-up is insane.
Tweet:
https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/1989472311393882192?s=20
🥊 Polymarket x UFC — The Deal of the Year
This was the headline all weekend.
The UFC–Polymarket partnership dropped first via @WatcherGuru, then officially from @Polymarket. Only a 45-minute gap — you could actually feel the coordinated press cycle happening in real time.
On the show, Nick broke down why this deal is way bigger than Google or Yahoo integrations:
UFC crowds: 20k–50k+ per event
Real-time engagement
QR codes linking straight into markets
Ad slots on TV + UFC Fight Pass streams
A fiercely loyal global audience
The boys even speculated on what happens when a partnership like this intersects with integrity issues — especially after UFC’s previous suspicious activity investigations. This is the first big live-sports test of prediction markets at scale.
Tweets:
https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1988955077961564566?s=20
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1988966638595502205?s=20
https://x.com/williamlegate/status/1989869171224780813?s=20
https://x.com/TheNotoriousSKi/status/1989128931740643404?s=20
🧪 AI Chaos Corner — “Can Someone Make This With AI?”
The show spent a good five minutes laughing about AI images, Hasbulla, Dana White, and the absolute misery of trying to get Grok or Pika to generate anything resembling a human face.
@0xTakeProfits asked the internet for an AI creation.
@0x_saurav picked up the vibe.
We tried recreating Shane + Hasbulla in a cage match. It did not work. AT ALL.
Tweets:
https://x.com/0xTakeProfits/status/1989262937102655632?s=20
https://x.com/0x_saurav/status/1989036776237969751?s=20
🤝 Polymarket x Kalshi Partnership Rumors — The Tweet That Shook the Timeline
@michaelwmarra dropped the now-iconic tweet suggesting a Polymarket–Kalshi partnership.
Nick went off:
This was “one of the best tweets in the entire war,” perfectly capturing how both teams race to out-announce each other every week.
The transcript had the full rant:
Two companies pushing each other so hard that every announcement drops twice.
Tweet:
https://x.com/michaelwmarra/status/1989050540714611023?s=20
🔍 Find Your Edge — The Kansas Inflation King
This section hit hard.
@KalshiEco shared an interview where Kalshi revealed that their top inflation trader is literally:
A random guy from Kansas
No financial background
Better at forecasting inflation than most analysts
On the show, Diego and Nick doubled down:
Everyone is an expert on something.
Your edge might be obscure — movies, inflation, elections, meme coins — but prediction markets reward real-world knowledge over credentials.
Tweets:
https://x.com/KalshiEco/status/1989103365066829852?s=20
https://x.com/TrenchTalkDaily/status/1983710542025122289?s=20
📊 Data Drop — PM Volume Goes Vertical
The transcript walked through dashboards from @datadashboards and @Prithvir12:
Polymarket hasn’t had a single day under 500k transactions in November
What used to be “peak hype” is now the baseline
Kalshi briefly overtook Polymarket in weekly volume
Opinion Labs continues creeping into the top tier
The conversation spiraled into how Opinion Labs came out of nowhere, Binance concerns, and whether volumes are organic.
Tweets:
https://x.com/Prithvir12/status/1989342060248170766?s=20
https://x.com/datadashboards/status/1990070781540258171?s=20
✍️ Shoutout Kyle — The ThreadGuy Stream
Kyle keeps showing up.
He joined ThreadGuy’s stream last week to break down his strategy.
The show couldn’t remember Arthur Hayes’ name for two full minutes — peak $1 Trade chaos — but eventually got there.
Tweet:
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1989108930166026456?s=20
🏦 Kalshi x Coinbase — USDC Custody Goes Mainstream
Big one: @CoinbaseDev announced a partnership with Kalshi to power event markets with USDC custody.
Nick summed it up:
Kalshi is “polyamorous” — Solana, Base, Coinbase, everyone. They integrate everywhere and commit nowhere.
Tweet:
https://x.com/CoinbaseDev/status/1989016992175780054?s=20
🇺🇸 Polymarket US Beta — Early Access Rumblings
@CarOnPolymarket shared screenshots suggesting Polymarket US is already live for some beta users.
The transcript:
– Market odds moved from 90% → 95%
– Users in the chat hinted they could access the beta
– The team refused to influence the market but acknowledged momentum
Tweet:
https://x.com/CarOnPolymarket/status/1988734103865160179?s=20
🤖 Kash Leaderboard Goes Live
Lucas’ product “Kash” released a community leaderboard, fueling the social-prediction angle.
The show called it clever marketing and revisited their past bonding-curve conversation with Lucas.
Tweet:
https://x.com/kash_bot/status/1989413263747219525?s=20
📈 Leverage on Prediction Markets — The Frontier Expands
HyperOdd is exploring leveraged prediction markets.
The transcript had Nick and Diego trying to determine whether it’s live yet (it’s not), and whether it mirrors Polymarket markets with additional leverage mechanics.
Tweet:
https://x.com/HyperOddX/status/1989128952745718127?s=20
🌐 Ecosystem Expands — New Maps, New Tools
@gavelsvtw shared a full Polymarket ecosystem map.
@PolymarketBuild surfaced a new directory tracking 19 categories and 170+ tools.
On stream, Nick joked every ecosystem map copies Messari’s color palette. Diego demanded “The $1 Trade Show” be added to the culture section.
Tweets:
https://x.com/gavelsvtw/status/1989394317958394134?s=20
https://x.com/PolymarketBuild/status/1971909355777020154?s=20
🎬 Aaron Enters His Bear Era (Fun)
@DiscussingFilm posted a meme declaring Aaron “bearish on prediction markets.”
The show treated it as pure comedy, mixed into a tangent about Arthur Hayes, podcasts, and founders who accidentally become characters in the space.
Tweet:
https://x.com/DiscussingFilm/status/1989395166365716721?s=20
📉 Where We Are in the Cycle — The Chart That Stopped the Show
@joostienXD dropped a chart that became an instant classic.
Nick wanted it printed on a shirt.
Tweet:
https://x.com/joostienXD/status/1989490221352722822?s=20
🌆 Polymarket October Visits — Traffic Goes Parabolic
Shayne posted site-visit charts comparing Polymarket to Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken, and even DraftKings.
Transcript takeaway:
Even though traffic doesn’t guarantee new users, the cultural visibility is exploding.
Tweets:
https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/1989350856316346749?s=20
https://x.com/0xashensoul/status/1989362855544828136?s=20
🌷 Tulip King: The Highs and Lows
The legend himself:
First tweet: “Polymarket is the easiest place to make 6 figures.”
Five days later: “I am not doing well.”
Diego described it perfectly:
“This is why we do $1 trades. Learn the game without burning the house.”
Tweets:
https://x.com/0xTulipKing/status/1988290581790159222?s=20
https://x.com/0xTulipKing/status/1989899754042454286?s=20
💰 Monster Profits — Biden Ceasefire Trade
@datadashboards highlighted a massive position:
$500k at 35¢ → nearly $900k profit.
The show immediately spiraled into Hunter Biden conspiracy jokes.
Tweet:
https://x.com/datadashboards/status/1989485951047913872?s=20
😬 Even the Best Have Bad Days
Two reality checks:
– @holy_moses7 lost ~$600 on an Elon-tweet reversal
– @Atlantislq showed a massive drawdown on the government-shutdown market (due to rule interpretation differences)
The show emphasized how valuable it is when traders share losses — rare transparency in a culture obsessed with W’s.
Tweets:
https://x.com/holy_moses7/status/1989281428341936394?s=20
https://x.com/Atlantislq/status/1988997985720541594?s=20
🎓 Prediction Markets 101 — Memecoin Trencher Edition
@aulijk explaining prediction markets to a meme-coin trader triggered deep discussion about:
Markets influencing real-world outcomes
Whether PMs polarize or inform
How NYC election ads may have increased turnout
And what happens as liquidity grows
This was one of the longest, smartest segments of the episode.
Tweet:
https://x.com/aulijk/status/1989091085118054470?s=20
📚 Deep Dive — Nigel Eccles’ “Comprehensive Guide”
We closed with @nigeleccles’ monster article, walking through:
Why sports are NOT the real TAM
Why Polymarket/Kalshi investors are thinking in $100B asset-class terms
Why US politics is central to market growth
How event-driven financial instruments could rival equities and options
The regulatory hinge: financial instrument vs. gambling
And why Trump’s administration is currently the single biggest tailwind
The transcript discussed this at length — especially the idea that prediction markets could become stock tickers for reality.
Tweet:
https://x.com/nigeleccles/status/1985788669324615926
🧱 That’s a Wrap
No Thursday show this week — Diego is at DevConnect, mustache and all.
We’ll be back next week with more chaos, charts, and drama from the world of $1 trades.
Want your content featured?
DM us @groovymarket_
Watch the show.
Join the community.
Ask. Earn. Repeat.