TDP #03: Friday Forecasts
See what's trending—before it happens.
✍️ Editor’s note:
Happy Friday and welcome to Issue #3 of The Daily Prediction!
We’re closing the week with a fresh batch of market signals, bold bets, and a few head-scratchers that only prediction markets could deliver.
Whether you’re here for the alpha or just along for the chaos—glad to have you with us.
— The Daily Prediction Team
💵 Will There Be a US Recession in 2025?
Polymarket traders are betting big on whether the US economy will hit a recession in 2025. As of May 30, 2025, the “No” contract (no recession) is trading at 64 cents, implying a 64% probability that the US will dodge a recession.
🔎 Current Economic Indicators
Per MarketWatch, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025. This was the country’s first decline in the last three years.
To top it off, CEOs in the US aren’t optimistic at all. 83% of these CEOs expect a recession in the next 12 to 18 months.
Yet, take a look at this:
Consumer confidence rebounded in May after five months of decline. This could be a positive effect of the temporary easing of US-China tariffs.
So still, there’s a flickering (yet slightly steadying) light of hope 🕯️
🤖 Which Company Will Lead the AI Trend?
Polymarket and Kalshi traders are also closely watching the race for AI supremacy this year. There are markets for each month, as well as for the end of 2025.
The frontrunner varies from Polymarket to Kalshi, though. 👀
🎖️ According to Polymarket: Google
May > Google leads with a 97% probability, with Anthropic at 2%.
June > Google leads with a 42% probability, with OpenAI at 25%.
July > Google leads with a 62% probability, with OpenAI at 20%.
EOY > Google leads with a 98% probability, with OpenAI at 20%.
🎖️ According to Kalshi: OpenAI (at least in May for coding)
Meanwhile, Kalshi traders are opting for OpenAI as the best coding model. This market differs slightly from Polymarket’s, with Kalshi focusing on the coding capabilities of the AI company.
Here’s how the AI coding race is shaping up on Kalshi (as of May 30, 2025):
OpenAI’s launch of Codex, an AI coding agent, could be a game-changer for Kalshi traders.
But don’t sleep on Google’s clapback to OpenAI. During Google I/O 2025, the tech giant released the beta version of Jules, their own AI coding agent. Jules is now available to the public.
Things are absolutely getting spicy 🌶️
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone.
⚖️ Politics
Will there be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas before June? (Polymarket)
Will Russia and Ukraine ceasefire before July? (Polymarket)
How much spending will DOGE cut in the first 6 months? (Polymarket)
Will Trump release any of the Epstein Files this Year? (Kalshi)
🎭 Culture
What will Tim Cook say during the Apple WWDC 2025 Keynote Event? (Kalshi)
Will Lorde have a #1 album this year? (Kalshi)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? (Polymarket)
When will MrBeast reach 400M subscribers on YouTube? (Manifold)
🎁 Meme You There: Groovy Market’s MEMECON Ticket Giveaway
Groovy Market, the new user-generated prediction platform, is giving away tickets to MEMECON Lisbon (June 4–6).
Here’s how to enter:
Subscribe to the Groovy Market newsletter by entering your email and hitting Subscribe below.
Post a screenshot of your subscription on X and tag Groovy’s official account.
That’s it—you’re in! 👇
