TDP #07: Elon v Trump's Marketable Beef
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Welcome to the seventh edition of The Daily Prediction!
The much-awaited market for the South Korean presidential election has officially closed, with Lee Jaemyung sworn in as the nation’s 21st president. But that’s not the only prediction that traders are placing on the politics space.
There’s much more, particularly in the U S of A. Get it? 👀
Plus, we curated some of the most unique prediction markets out there. You might want to take a look…and take a chance on them. 🤞
— The Daily Prediction Team
⚖️ Who Will Be the Democratic Nominee in the NYC Mayoral Election?
After the first TV debate between rivals, the 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral nomination market is heating up in Kalshi. Andrew Cuomo, who is making a political comeback, is still the frontrunner.
Here’s how the nomination race is shaping up on Kalshi:
Andrew Cuomo: 86%
Zohran Mamdani: 15%
On Polymarket, Cuomo is also leading (86%), with Mamdani trailing (14.2%).
Cuomo might be the obvious frontrunner, but this race isn’t over yet. Two weeks ago, the U.S. Department of Justice began investigating Cuomo, particularly about his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic as New York City’s former governor.
The Democratic primary is slated for June 24, 2025.
What can Cuomo do to defend his honor and maintain the lead? Can Mamdani or Brad Lander string an upward momentum?
The clock is ticking for the NYC Democratic mayoral candidates. ⌚
⚖️ Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?
Polymarket traders are closely watching the escalating tensions between President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk. This comes after Musk called Trump’s signature tax and spending bill a “disgusting abomination”.
So far, here’s how this potential Trump-to-Elon spat is playing out on Polymarket:
Yes: 34%
No: 69%
Musk endorsed Trump’s presidency in 2024, even joining the latter on his campaign rallies. This year, Musk became a senior adviser to Trump through his role in the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
However, Musk has since stepped down from his position, offboarding himself from the Trump administration. Since then, the Trump-Musk relationship has turned sour.
This leads us to the present: Will Trump fire back and publicly insult or mock Musk?
If you have the key to Trump’s thoughts, today might be your lucky day. 🔮
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
🏀 Sports
Who will be the 2025 French Open Winner (Men’s)? (Polymarket)
Who will be the F1 Drivers champion? (Polymarket)
Which team will win the Stanley Cup? (Kalshi)
🎭 Culture
How many Spotify streams for Sabrina Carpenter’s “Manchild” song? (Kalshi)
Which characters will die before the end of the One Piece manga? (Manifold)
Will Grand Theft Auto 6 cost over $100? (Polymarket)
