TDP #10: Tuesday Trendlines
See what's trending—before it happens.
🦄 Powered by Groovy Market - Ask. Earn. Repeat.
✍️ Editor’s note:
Welcome to the 10th edition of The Daily Prediction!
It’s Tuesday, and prediction markets are alive with signals on America’s economic pulse and Elon Musk’s empire. Elon’s businesses face fresh scrutiny—we’ll get to this later on.
We’re hoping you’re off to a great start this week! Let’s see what traders are thinking, shall we? 💡
— The Daily Prediction Team
💵 How Much Will the US GDP Grow in Q2 2025?
Kalshi traders are betting on the US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025, with early returns leaning toward a sluggish recovery. This market will resolve when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the data sometime after June 2025.
On Kalshi, here are the top choices for this market:
Above -1.5%: 97%
Above -0.5%: 97%
Above -2.0%: 96%
Above -1.0%: 96%
Above 0.0%: 94%
🔎 Current US GDP Snapshot
Kalshi traders are placing some surprisingly mixed bets on Q2 GDP growth, especially given the economic whiplash from Q1’s contraction. Largely attributed to trade policy disruptions, GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1.9% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024.
This prediction market isn’t just about academic projections, though. Real money is riding on these outcomes.
Kalshi’s mixed predictions reflect this tension. What’s your take? 👀
💵 Will Someone Become Richer Than Elon Musk Before July?
Polymarket traders are betting on whether anyone will surpass Elon Musk as the world’s richest person by June 30, 2025. So far, they’re heavily backing Elon to hold his crown.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (BBI), Elon still leads by a mile over his counterparts.
But here’s the wild reality: Elon just lost $34 billion in a single day, the second-largest loss ever in BBI history. Ongoing tensions with the Trump administration could plummet his net worth even more, considering Tesla’s struggling stock price and increased EV competition.
Still, there’s a reason to be optimistic if you’re Elon: X’s Polymarket partnership. X (formerly Twitter), currently owned by Elon-founded xAI, plans to bolster prediction markets with Polymarket.
It could bolster Elon’s portfolio, too. Let’s see. 👀
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
⚖️ Politics
What will Trump say during his speech at Fort Bragg? (Kalshi)
Will the Israeli military take action against Iran before July? (Polymarket)
Will the National Guard kill anyone in the next week? (Manifold)
🎭 Culture
Which song will top the Billboard Hot 100 on June 21? (Kalshi)
How many units will the Nintendo Switch 2 sell in 2025? (Manifold)
Who will win the lawsuit between Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni? (Kalshi)
