TDP #13: Reserve or Revise?

See what's trending—before it happens.

Jun 13, 2025

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✍️ Editor’s note:

Happy Friday from The Daily Prediction team!

It’s Friday the 13th (some investors and traders might be superstitious). Yet, prediction markets are telling a different story.

Traders are still anticipating President Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plans, with markets like Kalshi showing a significant chance that it will happen this year.

Crypto markets are buzzing, while the spotlight on America’s GDP growth intensifies as June numbers begin to show up.

We have so much to unpack at the end of the week. Read on! 📖

— The Daily Prediction Team

🪙 Will Trump Create a National Bitcoin Reserve This Year?

Kalshi traders are betting real money on whether Donald Trump will deliver on one of his biggest crypto promises.

Here’s the backdrop: In March 2025, Trump authorized forming a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using seized BTC—though initially without new purchases. Then yesterday, Trump said that the reserve is “not done yet”.

As such, prediction markets are buzzing on this uncertainty. So far, the majority of Kalshi traders don’t believe that the reserve will be created this year. Here’s the split data:

Yes: 27%
No: 75%

As you can see, market sentiment on Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has dropped significantly from a high of almost 75% in January 2025.

So, is there a realistic chance that the President will deliver on this promise?

Of course, there is. Trump even considers himself a “crypto president” during Coinbase’s State of Crypto Summit.

He’s also pushing for a “transparent and easy market structure”, following his backing of Senator Cynthia Lummis’s Bitcoin Act. This bill aims to have the government acquire up to 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) over five years, with a goal of 200,000 BTC annually.

Mixed signals are flaring. What’s your take? 🤔

💵 How High Will the US GDP Growth Be in Q2 2025?

On Polymarket, traders are closely watching the signals affecting GDP growth of the United States in the second quarter of 2025. This is a critical gauge of trader sentiment amid economic uncertainty from tariffs, inflation fears, and policy shifts.

As of June 13, 2025, here’s how predictions on US GDP growth are shaping up on Polymarket:

Above 2%: 78%
2-1%: 18%
1-0%: 2%

📊 Historical Data on US GDP Growth Rate

In Q1 2025, the US economy contracted for the first time in three years. It decreased at a rate of 0.2%, which is a gut punch after years of steady growth.

But then came a bombshell from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

As of the last update (June 2), the GDPNow model estimates a 4.6% GDP growth for Q2 2025. If this prediction becomes correct, this would be the strongest quarterly growth since 2021.

Talk about economic whiplash. 📈

We’ll check in on this market again as the month comes to a close. We recommend monitoring developments in these foreseeable events: