TDP #14: Fed Focus & Geopolitical Ripples
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Hey folks—welcome to a new week of The Daily Prediction!
We know it’s still Monday, but Tuesday and Wednesday can’t come soon enough. The Federal Reserve’s June 17-18 meeting arrives at a moment when uncertainty feels like the only constant.
Meanwhile, the Middle East is in shambles. Will the United States maintain its diplomatic distance from the Israel-Iran conflict? 🤔
This is where prediction markets earn their keep. Let’s see where the smart money is positioning on. 💵
— The Daily Prediction Team
💵 What Will Be the Fed Decision in June?
The Polymarket crowd is locked in on a “hold”, with traders overwhelmingly predicting that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be on June 17-18.
As of June 16, 2025, here’s how this market is shaping up on Polymarket:
No change: 98%
25 bps decrease: 2%
50+ bps decrease: <1%
25+ bps decrease: <1%
📊 Federal Funds Effective Rate Historical Chart
Since December 2024, the fed funds rate has stayed at 4.50%. With inflation above the 2% target, the Federal Reserve is prompting caution against premature rate cuts.
Other reasons that influence this status quo could be the following:
Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies
Steady unemployment rate (4.2%), with more jobs added
Economic data showing moderation, not collapse
Sure, the United States economy dipped in Q1 2025 (0.3%). However, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model currently predicts a 4.6% growth in Q2.
This economic rebound could be influencing a widespread consensus of economists expecting no change in the fed rate in June.
Let’s see, though. President Trump will reportedly set unilateral tariff rates ahead of the July 9 deadline. 👀
While fed rates might not change in June, the story could be different in the next couple of months. ⏩
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⚖️ Will the United States Meet with Iran Before July?
On Kalshi, traders are predicting whether the United States will hold a diplomatic meeting with Iran before July 1, 2025. This is becoming a focal point for traders navigating heightened Middle East tensions.
So far, Kalshi traders are leaning towards the US maintaining a distance from this affair:
Yes: 78%
No%: 18%
🗺️ Mapping Israel’s Attacks on Iran
Yesterday, President Trump reiterated that the US “is not involved” in Israel’s strikes against Iran. But here’s where it gets spicy: Trump also said that it’s possible that they could get involved.
On June 12, Reuters reported that the US envoy will meet Iran’s foreign minister on June 15.
Then, on June 14, Iran said that this meeting could be “meaningless”. Eventually, Iran canceled the meeting after sustaining Israeli attacks on their nuclear and military sites.
There have been five prior rounds of US-Iran nuclear talks since April. But the June 13 Israeli airstrikes on Tehran could’ve reduced hopes for more talks.
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
🤖 Tech
Will OpenAI buy X before July? (Polymarket)
When will Tesla launch unsupervised FSD? (Kalshi)
When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio? (Manifold)
🎭 Culture
How long will Karen Read spend in prison? (Polymarket)
Which restaurant will win the James Beard Award? (Kalshi)
Who will endorse Yudkowsky and Soares’ book? (Manifold)
