TDP #15: Crypto Fever
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Welcome to the 15th edition of The Daily Prediction!
What’s Bitcoin’s role in the Trump administration?
This has been a big question in the crypto space, and one that we could have an answer for soon.
We’ll also look into the looming ChatGPT-5 release—if indeed it will be released soon.
All that and more in our daily newsletter. Let’s dive into it now. 🤿
— The Daily Prediction Team
🪙 Will Bitcoin Hit an All-Time High Before July?
Polymarket traders are predicting the possibility that Bitcoin will surpass its previous all-time high before July 2025. BTC’s record high is $111,970, which it reached on May 22, 2025.
So far, traders are taking a cautious approach in predicting this market:
Yes: 38%
No: 69%
🔎 Current Bitcoin Snapshot
Bitcoin is steadying near the high-$100k, having reached $110,295 on June 10. Despite recent turbulence in the Middle East, it’s a sign of optimism that BTC is still hovering 5% below its all-time high.
It also helps that the GENIUS Act bill has cleared the Senate and entered the final passage stages. This would set forth a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is the first of its kind.
If the legislation comes through, this would be a big win for cryptocurrency markets. Wall Street broker Bernstein said that stablecoins will become the “money rail of the internet”.
This, and Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plans, will boost BTC in 2025, per Foresight Ventures’ Alice Li.
2025 could be Bitcoin’s year. Are you still doubtful and bearish? 🤔
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🤖 Will OpenAI Release ChatGPT-5 in 2025?
Kalshi traders are currently placing their bets on ChatGPT-5’s arrival this year. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s cryptic updates, plus other competing AI models, might push the tech company to release its next generation of conversational AI.
Traders on Kalshi are extremely bullish on this market. Take a look:
Yes: 89%
No%: 17%
ChatGPT is a go-to for many people, but it still lags behind Google’s Gemini in text-based capabilities, at least according to the LM Arena rankings.
This should prompt OpenAI to turn it up a notch against the competition. In February 2025, Altman confirmed that GPT-5 will unify o-series with GPT-series models into one system.
However, OpenAI apparently changed its plans a couple of months later. It released the new o3 and o4-mini models, essentially delaying the arrival of GPT-5.
Through his X account, Altman mentioned in April that they’ll “do GPT-5 in a few months”, which gives us an estimated target date of July or sometime in Q3.
Well, July is here in a couple of weeks. No wonder the anticipation is building up on prediction markets. 📆
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
⛈️ Climate
Will there be an earthquake 7.0 or above in June? (Polymarket)
How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this year? (Kalshi)
What is the highest temperature in Denver tomorrow? (Kalshi)
🎭 Culture
Will GTA 6 cost more than $100? (Polymarket)
Which movies will earn Oscar nominations for Best Picture? (Kalshi)
Will there be a Nintendo Direct before June 22? (Manifold)
