TDP #16: Hotdogs and Basketballs
See what's trending—before it happens.
🦄 Powered by Groovy Market - Ask. Earn. Repeat.
✍️ Editor’s note:
The 16th edition of The Daily Prediction has dropped.
You know who doesn’t drop the ball? The Oklahoma City Thunder.
OKC is now one win away from capturing its first NBA championship. Will we see a blue-and-orange celebration at Indiana on Thursday? 🍾
Oh, and have you heard of Joey Chestnut? We're sure you do. The GOAT is returning this year. 🌭
We’ll talk sports stuff today. Let’s get to it. 👇
— The Daily Prediction Team
🏀 Who Will Win Game 6 of the NBA Finals?
Kalshi traders are all-in on Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals. The Oklahoma City Thunder are one win away from the championship, making this a highly anticipated matchup.
As expected, the odds favor Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder:
Thunder: 68%
Pacers: 32%
It’s not a surprise—the Thunder have won the last two games after all. And they’re not just relying on the exploits of their reigning MVP. Along with SGA, his fellow All-Star Jalen Williams is hoopin’ it up.
Williams is coming off a 40-point performance in Game 5, and it seems like the Pacers defense doesn’t have an answer for him.
Meanwhile, the Pacers have a big problem on their hands. Their star guard Tyrese Haliburton will reportedly undergo an MRI for his calf strain injury. He had a horrible Game 5 (didn’t make any shots), but it will be more horrible for the Pacers if they don’t have their primary playmaker for Game 6.
If Haliburton sits out, the Pacers will rely more on Pascal Siakam’s offensive prowess. They might also ask more from veteran guard TJ McConnell, who had himself an incredible Game 5.
Still, the Thunder are the -2500 favorites to win the Finals after their Game 5 victory. It will take a great game and a bit of luck for the Pacers to extend this series to a Game 7.
🦄 A message from Groovy Market
🌭 Will Joey Chestnut Eat More Than 70 Hot Dogs in the 2025 Nathan’s?
On Manifold, traders are giving Joey Chestnut around a 70% chance of eating more than 70 hot dogs at the 2025 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest.
This comes after Chestnut announced his return to the contest after sitting out the 2024 iteration.
Chestnut didn’t participate in the 2024 competition due to a disagreement with Major League Eating. His sponsorship deal with Impossible Foods became an obstacle last year. This year, not so much.
A reinvigorated Chestnut could be a problem in the annual Fourth of July contest. If you’re not familiar with Chestnut’s game, here are some of his jaw-dropping records:
Chestnut holds the record for the most hot dogs eaten in 10 minutes (76), which he followed up with 63 and 62 during his 2022 and 2023 victories. Last year, Patrick Bertoletti took home the title with 58 hot dogs.
Bertoletti and Takeru Kobayashi could be the fiercest eaters who’ll challenge Chestnut this year. We’ll update you on this competition’s odds as soon as they’re released. 🫡
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
⚖️ Politics
What will Jerome Powell say during his June press conference? (Kalshi)
Will Iran do something unbelievable in the next two weeks? (Manifold)
Will the US recognize Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s leader before August? (Polymarket)
🎭 Culture
How many Day 1 views for the next MrBeast video? (Polymarket)
Which title will win Game of the Year? (Kalshi)
Will BTS release any tracks in 2025? (Polymarket)
