TDP #17: Teetering On the Brink of Armageddon
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Prediction markets never sleep—especially when missiles are flying.
Welcome to a special edition of The Daily Prediction, as we focus on tensions in the Middle East and the potential intervention from the United States.
Will we get to a point where World War 3 is no longer just hearsay? It’s not that impossible.
The markets are pricing in scenarios that seemed unthinkable just weeks ago. We’ll explore these scenarios, plus look into several war prop bets. 👀
— The Daily Prediction Team
🌏 Will Israel Officially Declare War on Iran by Friday?
With the heightening tensions in the Middle East, Polymarket traders are placing their predictions on an official declaration of war between Israel and Iran. So far though, people are extremely cautious of this market, as you can see in these split votes:
Yes: 1.7%
No: 98.5%
This market is circulating in other prediction platforms, too. On Manifold, it gets even more specific. They have a list of war prop bets between Israel and Iran. 👀
See for yourself:
Interestingly, there are no similar markets in Kalshi. They do have a prediction game going on around Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi:
For context, Pahlavi is the eldest son of the last Shah of Iran and the founder of the National Council of Iran, an exiled opposition group. Pahlavi is a prominent critic of Iran’s Islamic Republic government.
🤔 How Realistic is an Official Declaration of War From Israel?
The likelihood of this is very low. Declaring war will invite global political consequences, potentially forcing world powers (such as the US) to react.
This could derail diplomatic backchannels and complicate regional alliances.
Plus, Israel’s allies and other Middle East countries are urging for de-escalation.
A formal war declaration could also accelerate Iran’s nuclear weapons program, especially with the increasing strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities.
Also, would Israel and Iran fully commit resources and public support to a total war? That could destabilize both governments, unless they have tricks up their sleeves.
For now, we’ll observe from afar and, of course, hope that both countries find a way to avoid further fallout. 🕊️
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🌭 Will America Bomb Iran in 2025?
On Manifold, traders are placing significant attention on America’s involvement in the Israel-Iran tensions. Interestingly, these traders assign a 66% chance that the US will engage in some form of military airstrike against Iran.
The people’s bullish sentiment isn’t surprising, given that US officials are preparing for a possible strike on Iran, per Bloomberg.
Back in March, President Trump already warned of bombing and increased tariffs if Iran does not make a nuclear deal. Fast forward to today, Trump told reporters last Tuesday that Iran might be “very close” to creating nuclear weapons.
However, the US has yet to pull the trigger.
Who can blame Trump, though? Military analysts say that a US strike could reshuffle Trump’s political fortunes and destabilize the region. The Washington Post talked more about this via the Post Reports podcast, which you can listen to below:
Tensions are real, but so far, all sides are cautious of an all-out war. The next few days might tell a different story. Let’s see. 🕵️
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
🏀 Sports
Who will win Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals? (Polymarket)
Who will be the Wimbledon Women’s Tennis winner? (Kalshi)
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028? (Manifold)
🧑⚕️ Health
Will any COVID vaccine lose its FDA approval this year? (Kalshi)
How many whooping cough cases this year? (Kalshi)
Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year? (Kalshi)
