TDP #18: TikTok's Ticking Clock
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Welcome to the 18th edition of The Daily Prediction!
Do you believe in three times the charm?
TikTok definitely does, as President Trump granted them another 90-day extension. What will they do with this lifeline? Find a buyer or risk it all with a ban?
While ByteDance plays the deadline roulette, Elon Musk is betting Tesla’s future on autonomous vehicles.
Both these stories represent high-stakes gambles in prediction markets. Let’s find out how these signals influence traders’ strategies. 👇
— The Daily Prediction Team
💵 Who Will Acquire TikTok?
Polymarket’s “Who will acquire TikTok” prediction market has seen rising activity recently. This trend comes after President Trump pushed back TikTok’s sell-by-date for a third time.
There’s also a market predicting TikTok’s ban before July, but there’s a high probability that this will close to a “No”. The traders’ money is now placed on the list of potential TikTok buyers.
Have a look:
📝 Looking Into Trump’s Latest Executive Order
For the third time, President Trump has pushed back the TikTok ban deadline. This gives the ByteDance product until September 17, 2025, to find a buyer.
Now, who are the frontrunners to acquire the popular social media app?
Reports say that Oracle has already had talks to run TikTok. Oracle’s political connections give it an edge in Washington, but there are darkhorse candidates in this race.
Microsoft and Amazon’s rich pockets will always be in consideration. Plus, there are speculative names like MrBeast (!!!) who can catch up at the finish line.
These predictions on TikTok’s status aren’t just happening on Polymarket, though. You can find similar markets on other platforms. We curated the best ones for you:
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok? (Manifold)
If TikTok gets banned, will ByteDance divest or shut it down? (Manifold)
Will TikTok leave the app store again before December? (Kalshi)
🦄 A message from Groovy Market
🚗 Will Tesla Launch a Driverless Robotaxi Service Before July?
Interestingly, Polymarket traders are still actively betting on Tesla’s driverless Robotaxi service launch date. Elon Musk has picked June 22 as the launch date—just two days from now. Yet, people are still doubtful.
In fact, a resounding “No” is circling on Polymarket:
Yes: 21%
No: 80%
Why are people still skeptical of Tesla’s Robotaxi launch?
The New York Times spoke with analysts who believe that the initial rides are only available to “company employees or invited guests.” Polymarket traders argue that this isn’t a public market launch, thus it shouldn’t be considered as an “official launch date.”
📊 Checking In on Tesla’s Stock
Based on the latest data, TSLA is trading around $322.35 (June 20, 2025). Year-to-date, Tesla’s stock is down 26% following a brutal 14% single-day drop this month.
It was only several months ago (December 2024) that TSLA reached an all-time high of $479.86. The market could be that unforgiving, huh?
However, Tesla still maintains a 52-week range of $179.66 to $488.54. If the Robotaxi experiment pans out, its potential will go sky-high. 📈
Long-term forecasts vary, of course. But Tesla’s upside could hinge on its autonomous driving success. Can they deliver? 👀
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
👱 Trump
What will be Trump's approval rating on June 20? (Polymarket)
What will Trump say during his Independence Day remarks on July 4? (Polymarket)
Will Trump eliminate the Department of Education this year? (Kalshi)
🎭 Culture
Who will sing the next World Cup song? (Kalshi)
Which TV shows will be cancelled this year? (Kalshi)
When will a new mainline Animal Crossing game be released on a Nintendo console? (Manifold)
