TDP #19: Bitcoin Plummeting
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Welcome to the 19th edition of The Daily Prediction!
It’s Monday—and there’s no shortage of news around here.
Bitcoin battles to hold above $101k, while the Middle East is witnessing something unprecedented: the US has officially entered the Israel-Iran conflict.
Global market jitters. Geopolitical fallout.
Today’s edition dives deep into the prediction markets that saw these coming.
— The Daily Prediction Team
🪙 How Low Will Bitcoin Get This Year?
Kalshi traders are bracing for impact—and their bets suggest Bitcoin’s $100k floor might not hold. Geopolitical turmoil and overall market volatility influence BTC’s plummeting price as of late.
Here’s how traders currently view Bitcoin’s floor in 2025:
Below $70k: 27%
Below $60k: 12%
Below $50k: 7%
On Polymarket, traders are also bearish on Bitcoin’s current value. People are predicting that BTC will further plummet this June:
Sooo, can Bitcoin still rebound and return to a bullish state? 🤔
🔎 Current Bitcoin Snapshot
Historically, global conflicts trigger short-term Bitcoin drops, especially as BTC is treated like risky tech.
It’s not just Bitcoin, too.
Ethereum and other cryptos are also plummeting amidst the conflicts between Israel and Iran. It also doesn’t help that the US has entered the conversation, contributing more fuel to the fire.
Still, there are reasons for people to be a bit optimistic. President Trump is still pushing for a US Bitcoin reserve. Plus, institutional inflows like BlackRock and Fidelity keep long-term forecasts optimistic.
As we head deeper into June, any global movement or policy shift could swing sentiment. We’ll continue to observe, analyze, and adapt. 🫡
🦄 A message from Groovy Market
🌏 Which Between Israel and Iran Will Surrender First?
Manifold’s most controversial market is asking the unthinkable question: Who will surrender first, Israel or Iran? This provocative market comes after US strikes on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites.
The current probabilities on Manifold are as follows:
Israel: 5%
Iran: 65%
💦 Looking At the Ripple Effects
Above, you can see an illustration of how the United States carried out its airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi pointed out that the American bombing was “extremely dangerous, lawless, and criminal behavior.”
Moreover, Iran said that there will be “everlasting consequences”, with Tehran reserving all options to retaliate.
It also doesn’t help that Tehran is considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would send oil prices soaring.
Iran had already warned before that any US intervention would cause irreparable damage. It seems that they’re staying true to their word.
So yes, it might be a while before someone surrenders in this back-and-forth affair. You still have a lot of time to place your predictions. ⌚
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
💣 Israel-Iran War
Will Trump blame Biden for the Israel-Iran escalation? (Manifold)
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? (Polymarket)
Will Iran resume nuclear talks with the US before July? (Polymarket)
🎭 Culture
How high will “Squid Game: Season 3” score on Rotten Tomatoes? (Kalshi)
Will the next Agent 007 (after "No Time To Die") be black? (Manifold)
Who will win Love Island Season 7 Women’s? (Polymarket)
