TDP #20: Ceasefire Sparks Hope and Doubt

See what's trending—before it happens.

Jun 24, 2025

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✍️ Editor’s note:

Welcome to the 20th edition of The Daily Prediction!

We’re here for another special World War 3 (hopefully not 🤞) edition, and rightfully so. The United States apparently brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

Yet, people are still doubting whether all parties have genuinely agreed to this ceasefire, triggering a frantic response from all corners of the globe.

Prediction markets have been rattled, too. Traders are repricing everything from regime change odds to nuclear deal probabilities.

We’re in for a good one here. Brace yourselves. 🎢

— The Daily Prediction Team

💣 Will There Be a New Iran-US Nuclear Deal This Year?

Kalshi traders are cautiously optimistic about a US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025, with sentiment surging after a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran. From only a 27% probability on June 22, it has increased to 41% today.

Take a look:

With President Trump announcing the ceasefire, you’d think that the probability of a new nuclear deal would skyrocket. However, the market remains uncertain about whether all parties will adhere to this agreement.

According to CNN, Israel said that Iran continued firing missiles hours after the ceasefire announcement. Israel Katz, Defense Minister of Israel, said that the country will “respond with force” after this “utter violation.”

However, Iranian state-affiliated media outlets denied this claim. So really, who is on the right here?

And, of course, how did you fare in this prediction market from Polymarket?

According to Polymarket, this market will resolve to “Yes” once the ceasefire agreement is publicly announced and mutually agreed on. There were already two proposed outcomes for “Yes”, but both were disputed. The final review for this market is scheduled two days from now.

🕊️ Will Diplomacy Prevail?

Going back to the potential nuclear deal, Iran and the US previously scheduled a sixth round of negotiations this month. But a couple of days after, Iran canceled nuclear talks after sustaining “barbarous” attacks from Israel.

It was then that almost all hope for a potential nuclear deal went down the drain.

But this 24-hour ceasefire could change the course for the better. Both sides are also hoping for renewed Geneva-Brussels diplomacy, something that could dramatically shift sentiment toward a deal.

Oh, then there’s Trump’s political messaging. His powerful influence could renew talks and push the odds back up. 🤞

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🌏 Will the Iranian Regime Fall in 2025?

Meanwhile, Polymarket traders are monitoring the stability of the Islamic Republic. People are putting their money on survival, even with some cracks showing.

Here’s how this prediction is playing out on Polymarket:

The chances of this happening are lowering as we speak, reflecting hopes for stability post-ceasefire. Yet, there’s a case for being pessimistic in this case.

Iran’s pre-ceasefire missile barrage and Israel’s evacuation warnings for Tehran keep tensions high.

⌛ What Would the Iranian Government Look Like in 2026?

Traders are also going all-in on Iran’s current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, being removed from power.

The 86-year-old Supreme Leader is facing the perfect storm. For Iran, there is one key calculation: letting Khamenei retreat without humiliation. But strip him of dignity or the prospect of survival, Khamenei may choose all-out conflict.

That wouldn’t be good.

Still, no person has been officially declared as the heir to Khamenei nor as a nominee. Some media outlets are positioning several names, though. Here’s a quick list: