TDP #21: Lottery Board and the Hot Dog Horde
See what's trending—before it happens.
🦄 Powered by Groovy Market - Ask. Earn. Repeat.
✍️ Editor’s note:
It’s the 21st edition of The Daily Prediction!
For now, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to hold. So, we’ll also take a temporary pause from Middle East tensions, shall we?
Prediction markets are going crazy on the NBA Draft tonight, with Duke star Cooper Flagg as the unanimous top choice.
Then, there’s the annual Fourth of July hot dog eating contest. Joey Chestnut versus Patrick Bertoletti. But are there darkhorse names that we should monitor?
It’s a sports edition for today’s TDP. Let’s get the ball rolling. 🏀
— The Daily Prediction Team
🏀 Who Will Be the Top 10 Picks in the 2025 NBA Draft?
The 2025 NBA Draft is commencing tonight, so naturally, Manifold traders are predicting the top lottery selections. Cooper Flagg appears to be the unanimous choice for the first overall pick, but people are predicting the next 9 selections.
So far, here are the ten draftees who have the highest probabilities on Manifold:
Cooper Flagg: 99%
Dylan Harper: 97%
VJ Edgecombe: 81%
Kon Kneuppel: 79%
Ace Bailey: 73%
Tre Johnson: 64%
Khaman Maluach: 52%
Jeremiah Fears: 48%
Derik Queen: 30%
Kasparas Jakucionis: 18%
Polymarket and Kalshi also have active draft markets right now. You can head over to these platforms for more specific draft predictions:
Will the Mavericks trade their #1 pick? (Polymarket)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo get traded during the NBA Draft? (Polymarket)
Who are the Top 5 draft picks this year? (Kalshi)
Who will be the 5th overall pick? (Kalshi)
Interestingly, you can also do a draft parlay on Polymarket. Here’s an example:
⏭️ Who Comes Next After Cooper Flagg?
If you’re looking for something set in stone, you’ll find one in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. The Dallas Mavericks, who own the top selection in this year’s draft, will surely pick Flagg first overall.
This brings us to an important question: Who will round up the rest of the lottery selections (picks #2 to #15)?
Along with the names we listed above, darkhorse candidates for the Top 10 picks include Noa Essengue, Carter Bryant, Collin Murray-Boyles, and Cedric Coward.
Also, stay alert for any trade updates from ESPN Senior Insider Shams Charania. Team needs factor a lot into these decisions, so monitor which teams will move up the order.
🦄 A message from Groovy Market
🌭 Who Will Win the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
All these hoops discussions are getting us “hangry”. Thankfully, we have some hot dogs to talk about next.
The Fourth of July is on the horizon, bringing us to the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. This competition is drawing heavy interest from Kalshi traders, as influenced by Joey Chestnut’s return.
As of June 25, 2025, the market is mainly split into two names:
Polymarket traders are also reflecting this sentiment, as they’re giving Chestnut a 90% chance to win the contest.
🥷 Chestnut x Bertoletti
After missing out on the 2024 competition, Chestnut is back with a bang. He won this event 16 times, and he’s once again the heavy favorite to emerge victorious this year.
In fact, DraftKings Sportsbook sets Chestnut’s over/under for hot dogs eaten at 69.5. That’s 11.5 hot dogs more than the total of last year’s champion Patrick Bertoletti, who ate 58 on his way to the title.
People are still placing their money on Chestnut, but at 41 years of age, can he dominate like before? Bertoletti will be a close competitor, but also monitor Geoffrey Esper as an underdog candidate. 👀
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
⚖️ Politics
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? (Polymarket)
What will Trump say at his Press Conference at the NATO summit? (Kalshi)
Will Fordow be put out of commission by the end of July? (Manifold)
🎭 Culture
Who will win Love Island Season 7 Women’s? (Polymarket)
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week? (Kalshi)
Who will release an album this year? (Kalshi)
