TDP #22: Trump the (Trade) Dealer

See what's trending—before it happens.

Jun 26, 2025

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✍️ Editor’s note:

Welcome to the 22nd edition of The Daily Prediction!

While the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds (apparently), President Trump’s trade agenda is back in the spotlight. Whispers of new deals are swirling, with the White House hinting at negotiations with multiple nations.

Meanwhile, an initially three-way dance for the title “World’s Most Valuable Company” has been trimmed to two names.

Who are these trillion-dollar companies? That’s for you to find out below. 😉

— The Daily Prediction Team

🌏 When Will Trump Announce a New Trade Deal?

Traders on Kalshi are split but increasingly leaning toward July as the month Trump finally pulls the trigger on a trade announcement. This trend follows a top White House official's hint that a series of trade deals will be announced after July 4th.

Here’s how this market is shaping up on Kalshi:

Alternatively, you can find similar markets on Polymarket. Traders there are predicting which countries the United States will agree to trade deals with before July. Here’s a quick list of the top choices (as of June 26, 2025):

India: 12%
Mexico: 9%
Japan: 6%
Vietnam: 6%
Brazil: 6%

🤔So…When Will These Deals Happen?

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said that the White House is just waiting for the completion of the domestic policy megabill. Here’s a quote from his interview on Fox Business Network:

“And so I think you’re going to see a sequence of trade deals, really starting from around the Fourth of July.”

Moreover, pressure from Middle Eastern markets could force Trump to announce stabilizing measures sooner rather than later. Recent tariff escalations on steel and aluminum have also created new pressure points and could disrupt commerce flows.

A deal—even a small one—would be a huge PR victory. It would also likely jolt market sentiment, particularly in chip and EV sectors, where tensions with China remain high. 📈

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💵 Which Company Will Be the Most Valuable by June 30?

Microsoft, Apple, or NVIDIA? Well, you might as well remove one option from that list.

On Manifold, traders are having a toss-up between NVIDIA and Microsoft for the title of the world’s largest company by the end of this month. So far, NVIDIA is leading by a mile:

NVIDIA: 87%
Microsoft: 13%
Alphabet (Google): 0.1%
Apple: Less than 0%

Polymarket also has this prediction on its platform, and it mirrors the market sentiment on Manifold.

🔎 What’s Happening to Apple?

Just one look at these companies’ valuation (by market cap), you’d know that something’s up. Uh…Apple?

Since its 52-week high of $260.10 (December 26, 2024), Apple’s stock price has gone down to $199.81.

Apple shares continue to fall after President Trump “threatened” them with a 25% tariff. Trump said that he will impose this tariff if Apple continues to assemble iPhones abroad.

The WWDC 2025 keynote didn’t do them any good, either. Apple’s stock dropped 1.5% after the event, indicating a level of disappointment from its investors.

Overcoming these obstacles wouldn’t be easy. First of all, moving iPhone production to the US would be extremely complex and costly.

Plus, can Apple outpace or even just come close to generative AI models from Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI?

Needless to say, Apple has some work to do. ⚒️