TDP #24: Bills and Ballots
See what's trending—before it happens.
🦄 Powered by Groovy Market - Ask. Earn. Repeat.
✍️ Editor’s note:
Edition 24 of The Daily Prediction is here. 🫡
The week has just started, but prediction markets are already buzzing with Senate speculation. The House has just passed the reconciliation package, also known as President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”.
Then we have the mayoral race in New York City, where a big upset is taking place.
Unpredictable. Unfathomable. Exciting. Just the way we want to start our speculations this week. 😉
— The Daily Prediction Team
🧑⚖️ When Will a Budget Reconciliation Bill Become Law?
Donald Trump is showing his ambitious side. That isn’t something new.
Yet, his “One Big Beautiful Bill” is gaining serious traction as we speak.
It has been the talk of the town in Kalshi, where traders are predicting when this budget reconciliation bill will become a law. Here are the trending choices so far:
Before December 2025: 99%
Before September 2025: 95%
Before August 2025: 83%
Polymarket also offers a similar market, which you can find here. Traders there are looking at August 31 (98%) and July 31 (94%) as the optimal dates for when the Senate passes the budget bill.
🤔 What’s Taking So Long?
As you can see in the chart above, analysts are concerned about the massive deficit that OBBAA could cause. But it’s not just about the potential government debt.
Moderate holdouts like Senator Thom Tillis and Rand Paul are concerned about steep Medicaid cuts and uncertainty over SALT tax provisions. An analysis showed that up to 11.8 million Americans could lose health insurance, which is a major hindrance to this proposed bill.
History also tells us that reconciliation bills face delays under tight majorities. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in 49 days with a 52-48 GOP Senate edge, but 2021’s American Rescue Plan took 60 days due to Democratic infighting.
Senate Republicans had hoped to begin voting on the legislation this week, but it’s unclear if that timeline will hold. Will the OBBAA survive parliamentary scrutiny? We’ll see. 👀
🦄 A message from Groovy Market
⚖️ Who Will Be Elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?
Manifold traders are betting like they’ve seen the future—and that future is very, very progressive. The prediction market on NYC’s mayoral race reveals a stunning consensus that would’ve been unthinkable just weeks ago.
You ask why? Take a look at how this race is shaping up on Manifold:
Zohran Mamdani: 75%
Eric Adams: 17%
Andrew Cuomo: 5%
Curtis Sliwa: 1.3%
Brad Lander: 0.7%
The mayoral race is also heating up on other prediction platforms. On Polymarket, Mamdani is also leading by a mile.
Kalshi also has the same market on their burner, with the “official Democratic nominee” leading with a 71% probability.
🥊 Can Someone Challenge Mamdani?
Well, of course, someone could challenge Mamdani in this race. But can they realistically pose a challenge?
After his June 24 primary upset, Mamdani’s momentum has been on a surge. He received significant backing from two major NYC unions. Interestingly, these two unions previously backed Andrew Cuomo, who lost the Democratic primary to Mamdani.
So what will Cuomo do next? The 67-year-old former NY governor opted to remain on the mayor’s ballot, and reports have it that he will run as an independent candidate.
Then, there’s Eric Adams, who is the current mayor of NYC. Adams launched a spirited campaign on June 26, calling himself a “blue-collar” counterpoint to Mamdani’s “silver spoon” elite image. Adams retains hold among working-class Black and Latino voters, but his low city-wide approval is difficult to ignore.
The 2025 NYC mayoral election is scheduled on November 4, 2025. Plenty of unforeseen circumstances will happen before then. Keep your eyes and minds open. 💡
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
👱 Trump
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? (Polymarket)
What will Trump say during his rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds? (Kalshi)
What will Trump say during his Independence Day remarks on July 4? (Polymarket)
🎭 Culture
Will Loki join the Straw Hats? (Manifold)
Who will be People's Sexiest Man Alive this year? (Kalshi)
Squid Game Season 3 Prop Bets (Manifold)
