TDP #25: We're (Not) Fed Up
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Welcome to the 25th edition of The Daily Prediction!
As we kick off July, prediction markets are buzzing with two compelling narratives. Will Bitcoin continue its bull run this month? What will be the Fed decision? Will there be a rate cut in July?
So many questions that we want answers to. Thankfully, prediction traders are giving us important signals, albeit how mixed they are.
Let’s see those signals for ourselves. 🚥
— The Daily Prediction Team
🧑⚖️ What Will Be the Fed Decision in July?
People want a rate cut. Do the people get what they want?
Bad news. The chances of that happening are slim, per Polymarket traders. 🥲
With the Fed starting to address their views, here’s a quick overview of how this prediction is shaping up on Polymarket:
No change: 84%
25 bps increase: 15%
50+ bps decrease: 1%
25+ bps increase: 1%
The Fed decision is also trending on other prediction platforms. Kalshi traders are reflecting the same sentiment, as they’re giving an 82% probability to the Fed opting for the status quo.
There are other similar markets that you can place your predictions on. Here’s a quick list that we curated for you:
What will be the Fed funds rate in July? (Kalshi)
How many Fed rate cuts in 2025? (Polymarket)
Will the fed funds rate go below 4% at any time by the end of 2026? (Manifold)
🔎 Current Fed Stance
One thing’s for sure: this is a political pressure cooker.
President Trump just sent a handwritten note urging Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed Reserve, to slash rates as low as 0.5%.
However, it doesn’t help that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed to Fed officials as “frozen at the wheel.” The Fed will likely stick to its “wait-and-see” mantra at Wednesday’s policy meeting.
After all, they don’t want to make a mistake again.
Powell is scheduled to speak in Europe today, probably to reiterate caution amid tariff-induced inflation risks.
So yeah, brace yourselves. This could be a collision course between Trump and the Fed. 🥊
🦄 A message from Groovy Market
🪙 When Will Bitcoin Hit $150K?
Kalshi traders are betting big on Bitcoin’s moonshot—and the smart money is getting increasingly bullish on the $150K target.
But here’s where it gets interesting: the timeline predictions are all over the map. Take a look:
Before 2026: 29%
Before October 2025: 11%
Before August 2025: 2%
As a side note, Polymarket traders are giving a 34% probability to BTC reaching $150K this year. You can find this market here.
🔎 Current Bitcoin Snapshot
Bitcoin opened Q3 at $107K, although it’s fluctuating as we speak. If you want to be bullish, you have our green light to do so.
Even with a mid-year dip, Bitcoin could still cross $150K by December, per Forbes. $1B worth of ETF inflows in June boost sentiment that Bitcoin will accelerate into Q3 and Q4.
However, skeptics warn of potential BTC drawdowns below $90K, which could delay hitting $150K. Bitcoin reaching $120K could change these skeptics’ minds, but can BTC do it?
We’ll monitor the signals this July and come back to you. We may have some answers by then. 🫡
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
🤖 Tech
How many Tesla deliveries this quarter? (Polymarket)
When will be the 10th launch of the SpaceX Starship? (Kalshi)
Will Samsung release a trifold phone this year? (Manifold)
🎭 Culture
Did the FBI destroy the Epstein files? (Polymarket)
Who will be the Oscar nominations for Best Director? (Kalshi)
Who will be the One Piece final villain? (Manifold)
