TDP #27: Elon Musk's Party Trick
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
The 27th edition of The Daily Prediction is here!
After the Diddy drama concluded (partially) yesterday, we now bring our attention to the ins and outs of the US economy.
Amid global trade tensions, prediction markets are buzzing with fear of a US recession.
And then, there’s Elon Musk. He’s always in the mix, isn’t he?
What’s up with Elon this time? Read more below to find out. 😉
— The Daily Prediction Team
⚖️ Will Elon Musk Create a Political Party in 2025?
Elon Musk is grabbing the headlines in prediction markets yet again. And yes, it’s not just about his feud with President Trump. Or is it?
On Manifold, traders are playing the long game on Elon’s political tantrums. They’re speculating whether Musk will create a new political party, and the odds are slightly optimistic.
Musk’s potential new foray into politics is also trending in Polymarket. Traders aren’t bullish on this happening soon, but they see it taking shape later this year:
December 31: 44%
July 31: 35%
July 4: 14%
🗣️ What Analysts and Media Say
Okay, we’re wrong. Musk’s ambition could be a direct influence on his opposition to Trump.
Per CNN, Musk wants to create the “America party” if Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” passes. The flamboyant Tesla CEO also plans to spend money to unseat lawmakers who support the tax bill.
After all, he calls Trump’s potential signature bill a massively expensive domestic policy package.
However, it’s not easy to form a political party in the United States. Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University, says that it’s almost impossible for third parties to be successful.
Lee Goodman, an attorney and former chair of the Federal Election Commission (FEC), points to “federal contribution limits” as a hurdle for Musk.
If Musk isn’t all talk, he needs to get creative with his strategy. This might not be just about his money.
Timing, connections, and a whole lot of support. Musk needs all of these, and more. 🪄
🦄 A message from Groovy Market
💵 Will There Be a US Recession in 2025?
Polymarket traders are placing their money on economic chaos—and there’s a sense of fear going around. A potential recession is painting a stark picture for 2025, as traders react to President Trump’s aggressive trade policies and mounting economic pressures.
A probability of 20% is not much, but hey, this is a potential recession that we’re talking about. This number can swing wildly when major economic events happen, which we think they will. 🥲
🔎 Current Economic Reality Check
The numbers are already showing stress. In late April, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the preliminary GDP for Q1 of 2025.
The GDP declined by 0.3%, and this negative growth amplified recession fears a couple of months ago.
But there’s a reason to be optimistic. Recession odds have recently scaled back, with Goldman Sachs trimming its probability from 35% to 30%.
Trump’s China “trade breakthrough” could be applauded for this scaleback. However, tariffs are still at a high, and the 90-day tariff pause is coming to an end.
Trump saved the economy from a total downfall (sort of), but he could also bring it back to the brink. How will he respond? 🤔
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
⛹️ Sports
Will Joey Chestnut eat more than 70 hot dogs? (Polymarket)
Who will win Men’s Basketball Player of the Year at the ESPYs? (Kalshi)
Who will be the 2025 World Series champions? (Polymarket)
🎭 Culture
Who will be the Time 2025 Person of the Year? (Polymarket)
Who will be the next James Bond? (Kalshi)
Who is actually stronger, Shanks or Mihawk? (Manifold)
