TDP #28: Friday Bitcoin Fireworks
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Happy Fourth of July, market-watchers!
The 28th edition of The Daily Prediction is about to be special, especially for crypto degens out there. 🤑
Yes, we know you want to see a fireworks display. But Bitcoin’s July ceiling is what’s lighting up the prediction boards today.
Will BTC achieve the “breakout of the decade” this month?
Meanwhile, across the pond at Wimbledon, defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is off to the middle stages. Can the talented Spaniard win it all again this year?
Crypto. Tennis. We can mix these two together. 🎾
— The Daily Prediction Team
🪙 How High Will Bitcoin Get This July?
The holiday weekend is shaping up to be anything but quiet for Bitcoin traders. Kalshi traders are seeing more upside on BTC.
They’re bullish but not euphoric. Still, this is good news in the crypto space, especially if you see Kalshi people giving BTC these high surge probabilities:
$135K or above: 60%
$120K or above: 45%
However, the bullish sentiment on Kalshi is not the same everywhere. Polymarket traders have little belief that Bitcoin will reach $130K in July. Take a look at where their money is at:
$115K: 51%
$100K: 40%
$120K: 25%
$95K: 19%
$130K: 6%
📈 Current Bitcoin Snapshot
As of July 4, 2025, BTC is hovering around the $108K-$110K range. That’s looking good, right?
But it gets better.
Bitcoin ETF inflows have surged past the $600M mark on Thursday, which is its “biggest single-day total” since May 2025. This could signal the return of institutional demand for BTC.
Moreover, Nasdaq is up 1.2$ this week, which indicates an increase in investor risk appetite. This might be positively influencing BTC as well.
Bitcoin is cruising into July on strong macro and sentiment tailwinds. With ETH inflows ticking back up and rate-cut odds rising, BTC could heat up fast this month. 🔥
🦄 A message from Groovy Market
🎾 Who Will Win the 2025 Men’s Wimbledon?
Polymarket traders are placing their money on the stars of the Wimbledon Centre Court. The two biggest names—Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner—are still in the running, but we’re seeing top-ranked players get booted out early.
So far, it’s Alcaraz that’s being favored in Polymarket. Have a look:
Carlos Alcaraz: 43%
Jannik Sinner: 37%
Novak Djokovic: 16%
Taylor Fritz: 3%
The great thing about Polymarket is that you can predict a single match. For instance, you can place your prediction on the upcoming match between Fritz and Davidovic Fokina.
🗣️ What the Tennis Experts Say
Per ESPN BET, the Wimbledon Men’s Odds currently favor Alcaraz (+120), with Sinner closely trailing behind (+160). The veteran Novak Djokovic is a bit far away with his +450 odds.
Sinner’s worst surface is arguably the grass, which is why experts are picking Alcaraz to win the tourney. Alcaraz, the winner in the last two years, is currently on a 13-match Wimbledon win streak.
Tennis expert Pam Shriver pointed to the Spaniard’s “extraordinary movement on a grass court” as his main advantage. D’Arcy Maine expects Alcaraz to “cement his status as the greatest player right now” with a hat trick on the Centre Court.
Alcaraz, 22, is slated to face German player Jan-Lennard Struff next. Struff, who is currently at 125th in the Men’s rankings, has only won one of his four matchups against Alcaraz.
This should be an easy picking for the 22-year-old defending champ. 🍒
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
⚖️ Politics
Who will win the Bolivian presidential election? (Polymarket)
Will Barack Obama publicly congratulate Zohran Mamdani before August? (Kalshi)
What will be the name of Elon Musk’s party? (Manifold)
🎭 Culture
Who will win the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest? (Kalshi)
Will the next James Bond be British? (Polymarket)
Which of the boys will win Love Island USA? (Manifold)
