TDP #29: Elon and Trump Making Moves
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Happy Monday, market watchers! It’s the 29th edition of The Daily Prediction. 😎
Are you still skeptical of prediction markets calling it before the headlines do? Take a look at our exhibit A: Elon Musk’s America Party. Musk had his own fireworks display after the Fourth of July.
Then, we have Trump’s tariff deadline, which is looming on July 9. Can Trump rack up new trade agreements before Thursday?
Traders are whispering in markets, and we’ve gathered the pigeon posts so you don’t have to. 🗣️
— The Daily Prediction Team
⚖️ When Will Elon Musk Register the America Party?
Since Elon Musk’s announcement of his America Party plans, traders have gathered on Polymarket to predict the next step.
Traders are not extremely bullish that Musk will file and register his new political party soon.
Elsewhere, this market is trending on other prediction platforms. Manifold traders are already arguing that Musk has registered with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Several Kalshi traders are also saying the same.
So, is it legit that Musk had already filed with the FEC? Let’s investigate. 🕵️
🔎 Is the America Party Already Registered?
The answer is no, but (maybe) we’re getting there.
Yesterday, reports from Nasdaq circulated about Musk having filed a statement of organization with the FEC. If this is true, then the America Party should have been officially established.
But stop right there. Musk has said himself that the “filing is false and has been reported as such to the FEC”.
Yahoo News and The Street Roundtable have since confirmed Elon’s recent tweet, therefore confirming that the America Party is not yet registered.
So yes, go ahead and place your predictions on Polymarket, Kalshi, or Manifold. This market is not yet resolved.
We’ll continue watching the news to update you once Musk officially registers his new political party. Check back in with us. 🫡
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💰 How Many Trade Deals Will the US Make Before Thursday?
July 9 marks the end of the 90-day suspension for tariffs. So naturally, prediction markets are all-in on the deals that the Trump administration will make before Thursday.
On Kalshi, traders are adamant that no deals will happen before Thursday. 🙅 The top three options are as follows:
At least 0: 99%
At least 1: 98%
At least 2: 89%
On Polymarket, you can predict which countries will strike a tariff deal with the US before August. Here’s a sneak peek: China isn’t in the Top 5 options.
India: 81%
EU: 75%
Canada: 70%
South Korea: 64%
Brazil: 33%
China is only at a 24% probability, which isn’t surprising. The tug of war isn’t over between the two countries.
🗣️ What the Experts Say
President Trump says that they’re close to signing trade deals, but should we believe in this claim? Probably not in its entire form.
Advisers Kevin Hassett and Stephen Miran hinted that the deadline could be rolled over for trading partners making “good faith” progress. Speculations have it that the deadline has been extended to August 1, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already denied the truth of that new deadline.
Now, what are the analysts saying?
Per Time, analysts are still expecting closer to 10-12 completed deals on or before July 9. That’s quite a number, given that the Trump administration only has a couple of days left.
Will Trump deliver, or are we going to see a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) scenario? We want to hear your voice. 👂
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
👱 Trump
Will Trump jail Elon Musk? (Polymarket)
Will Trump release any of the Epstein Files this year? (Kalshi)
Will Trump deport Elon Musk in 2025? (Polymarket)
🎭 Culture
How many Spotify streams for Drake’s “What Did I Miss”? (Kalshi)
Will Cardi B and Stefon Diggs break up before August? (Polymarket)
Will BLACKPINK release an album before 2026? (Polymarket)
