TDP #31: When Bots Go Bad

See what's trending—before it happens.

Jul 09, 2025

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✍️ Editor’s note:

Welcome to Edition 31 of The Daily Prediction!

This Wednesday finds us deep in the fascinating chaos of AI accountability. Grok’s gone ghost after an anti-semitic tirade. What can xAI owner Elon Musk say about that? 👀

Plus, anticipation is building up in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, as two teams fight for the last Final spot. Learn about the current odds for the semifinal match between PSG and Real Madrid.

All that, and more in today’s newsletter. Let’s get rolling. ⚽

— The Daily Prediction Team

🤖 Will Grok Resume Replying by Wednesday?

Grok is out in the dark woods.

Grok has been silent on X for a while. It’s generating images as replies, but it has stopped replying in text.

Polymarket traders are already anticipating whether Grok will resume replying today. So far, it’s almost a 50-50 tussle.

📰 Why, What Happened?

Grok has recently come under fire for generating controversial content, including antisemitic remarks and praise for Adolf Hitler. It even called itself “MechaHitler”, among other pro-Hitler content.

Those replies were since removed by xAI, as expected. Grok also released a statement to acknowledge the issue.

The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) described Grok’s recent replies as “irresponsible, dangerous, and antisemitic.”

It also doesn’t help Grok’s case that Turkey has blocked access to it for allegedly insulting President Erdoğan, founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, and the country’s religious values.

Grok pledged better moderation in its statement, but can they realistically do that within today? They can’t make the same mistake again, and they’re facing enormous pressure from regulators and company shareholders.

Grok’s text comeback by today is possible, but very unlikely. 😶

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⚽ Who Will Win Between PSG and Real Madrid?

It’s gameday, folks!

The PSG vs Real Madrid semifinal match in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup is happening today. It’s generating massive interest in prediction platforms, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold.

On Manifold, traders are split on the two teams’ chances.

Meanwhile, Polymarket traders are giving PSG a slightly higher probability (54%) to win. The same thing goes for Kalshi traders, who give PSG a 42% probability to win, as compared to Real Madrid’s 34%.

🔦 Mbappe Grabs the Spotlight

Kylian Mbappe achieved almost instant success when he signed with PSG in 2017. He achieved almost every accolade there is, establishing himself as one of football’s most sought-after stars.

But in 2024, the French star signed a five-year contract with Real Madrid. Now, Mbappe faces his old team in a high-stakes Club World Cup semifinal match.

However, people are asking this question: Is Mbappe 100% healthy heading into this matchup against PSG? Mbappe has endured a stomach bug in the group stage, forcing him to miss games and affecting his physical condition.

Real Madrid head coach Xabi Alonso said that Mbappe is “still not perfect, not 100 percent, but he is getting better every day.”

Even if he’s not at his best, Mbappe can surely boost Real Madrid’s chances against PSG.

Let’s predict it: Will Mbappe score a goal in the CWC semifinal? 🤔