TDP #32: Bitcoin Breakout
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Welcome to the 32nd edition of The Daily Prediction!
And oh boy, it is a fun edition today.
Bitcoin, ever the unpredictable asset, is seeing a remarkable surge. Is this the ascent we’ve all been waiting for, or just another detour?
Meanwhile, at Wimbledon, the cast has been cut to four names. Will a 38-year-old veteran win it all, against all odds?
All our boards have been rattled. Markets are pricing in dramatic shifts. It’s time to explore. 🔎
— The Daily Prediction Team
🪙 How High Will Bitcoin Get This Month?
Moonshot. Bull run.
Call it whatever you like. Bitcoin just hit a new high on July 9 after breaching the $112K mark.
So naturally, prediction markets are anticipating whether Bitcoin reaches a new record this month. People want more.
On Kalshi, traders are cautiously optimistic. Traders there are not yet convinced that BTC will reach north of $130K this July.
Polymarket traders are actually more wary of Bitcoin’s run. The option with the highest probability there remains at $115K.
Also, you might want to place predictions on this Bitcoin market in Manifold. This market could blow up with activity in the next couple of days.
🔎 Current Bitcoin Snapshot
As of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $110,969.
It broke a new record at $112K, possibly propelled by ETF inflows, a softer dollar, and Fed minutes indicating possible rate cuts.
Still, there’s room to grow for BTC.
CoinCodex projects Bitcoin could reach $131K sometime this month. Bitwise forecasts a 30% July rally, which will push BTC toward $136K, citing macro momentum, institutional demand, and geopolitical boosts.
Historically, the month of July offers a seasonal rally. We might have to wait until mid-August to see how sustainable this will be for BTC.
But hey, an all-time high is an all-time high. Cheers for everyone who believed in this bull run. 🍻
🦄 A message from Groovy Market
🎾 Who Will Win the 2025 Men’s Wimbledon?
The grass is awaiting its champion.
After some grueling matches, the 2025 Men’s Wimbledon is down to four semifinalists. Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Taylor Fritz compose the Final 4.
As expected, Alcaraz, the defending champion, is the frontrunner in Polymarket.
Kalshi traders reflect the same sentiment.
It’s almost the same sentiment on Manifold, with a slight change on Sinner and Djokovic’s odds.
🔢 Breaking Down the Odds
Which of the four semifinalists is the favorite to win it all? FanDuel has the odds:
Carlos Alcaraz: -195
Jannik Sinner: 2 to 1
Novak Djokovic: 5 to 1
Taylor Fritz: 18 to 1
World #2 Carlos Alcaraz faces World #5 Taylor Fritz in the semifinals. Alcaraz is on a 19-match winning streak in Wimbledon (!!!), having won the last two tournaments.
The 27-year-old Fritz has faced Alcaraz in two career matches, and didn’t win any. That streak won’t break anytime soon.
Meanwhile, World #1 Jannik Sinner will go up against World #6 Novak Djokovic. Sinner has always had his problems on the grass, not to mention that he might have a bothersome elbow injury.
Djokovic? Well, he’s 38 years of age. Even if he gets past Sinner, the 7-time Wimbledon champion might not have enough in the tank to overcome Alcaraz. 👎
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
👱 Trump
Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in 2025? (Polymarket)
Who will Trump talk to before August? (Kalshi)
Will Trump announce his new Chair of the Federal Reserve in 2025? (Kalshi)
📽️ Movies
What will be the Top 10 grossing films in the US in 2025? (Manifold)
How high will “Superman” score on Rotten Tomatoes? (Polymarket)
How high will “Smurfs” score on Rotten Tomatoes? (Kalshi)
