TDP #34: Trade Wars Continue
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Welcome to the 34th edition of The Daily Prediction!
Trump is on a new tariff tirade after threatening a 30% rate on EU and Mexican imports. This has rattled global trade and reminds us that trade wars are not in recess. 🤦♂️
Meanwhile, all eyes are on Fed chair Jerome Powell this month. His upcoming July press conference takes on rising inflation concerns and the tariff threats.
We’re not envious of Powell’s job right now, that’s for sure.
Let’s see what prediction markets are saying about these two major economic topics today. 🧐
— The Daily Prediction Team
💵 Which Countries Will Agree to US Tariff Rates Before August?
The tariff deadline is looming on August 1, and President Trump’s recent stance has gotten a mixed reception.
The latest in this trade saga is Trump’s 30% tariff threat on Mexico and the European Union. Prediction markets are now speculating which countries will agree on a trade deal with the United States.
On Polymarket, their prediction specifies which countries will have tariff agreements before August 2025.
Despite the tariff threats, Polymarket traders still give the EU the highest probability to strike a deal with the US.
Meanwhile, Kalshi traders have India at the top of their list.
🗣️ What the Analysts Say
From the outside, it does look like Trump’s escalating tariff threats are creating dangerous economic uncertainty.
But what do the analysts think about it?
Mary Lovely, Senior Fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics, warns that we might see job losses.
Alan Sykes, Professor of Law at Stanford University, observes how Trump refutes commitments by previous US administrations. He says that other countries might question the United States’ credibility in negotiations.
So you see, the trade war isn’t just about economic uncertainty. It could influence politics as a whole, too.
Still, the global market is cautious, acknowledging past patterns. What are those patterns, you say? Trump is escalating threats before dialing them back.
Have we seen this before? 🤔
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🎙️ What Will Powell Say At His July Press Conference?
Escalating trade tensions meet Fed chair Jerome Powell. 🤝
With the trade fiasco ongoing, the spotlight shines on Powell’s press conference on July 30. Kalshi traders are putting real money on the exact words that’ll come out of Powell’s mouth.
This is definitely one of the best types of speculations in prediction platforms. Unemployment, forecast, and inflation are the top three words on Kalshi traders’ list.
On Polymarket, “Good afternoon” is at the top of their predictions for obvious reasons.
🗣️ Will Powell Reiterate Caution (Again)?
Unfortunately for those who want something new, Powell is expected to reiterate caution and resist political calls again.
So yes, Powell might just ignore Trump’s push for swift rate cuts.
But it doesn’t mean that the current Fed chair is just here to bring bad news.
A recurring theme in Powell’s addresses is to achieve maximum employment and stable prices. He consistently emphasizes that monetary policy decisions are “data-dependent”.
These economic data mostly consist of inflation, employment, and growth indicators. Look for Powell to double down on those topics, so you might as well include those in your predictions. 📝
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
⚖️ Politics
What will Trump say at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit? (Polymarket)
Will Trump release any of the Epstein Files this year? (Kalshi)
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028? (Manifold)
🎭 Culture
Who will be the next CEO of X? (Polymarket)
How high will “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” score on Rotten Tomatoes? (Kalshi)
Who will win Big Brother 27 (US? (Manifold)
