TDP #36: The H20 Homecoming
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Welcome to another edition of The Daily Prediction!
It’s been a dynamic week, to say the least. The tech world is buzzing and rightfully so. Nvidia just secured the green light from the Trump administration to resume selling advanced AI chips to China.
Meanwhile, at Royal Portrush, the golf elite are teeing off for the 2025 Open Championship.
Prediction markets are talking about these two topics. Let’s see how traders are responding below. 👀
— The Daily Prediction Team
💻 What Will Be the Largest Company By End of 2025?
Nvidia just upped the ante with their recent positive development.
After bringing back the H20 AI chips to China, Nvidia has increased its lead in prediction markets. Polymarket traders are heavily leaning towards Nvidia becoming the largest company this year.
Manifold traders also have something to say about this market.
For prediction traders, they’re unanimous in ranking Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple on the podium. But what are the analysts saying? 🤔
🗣️ What the Analysts Say
Analysts are heavily weighing on this being an AI story.
Nvidia sent shockwaves through the tech industry when it secured a green light from the Trump administration to bring its H20 computer chips to the Chinese market.
The vast majority of analysts have “Strong Buy” or “Outperform” ratings on Nvidia, indicating high confidence in its continued growth. They also estimate that Nvidia will maintain around 75-77% of the AI accelerator sales market until 2030.
Nvidia’s near-monopoly in the critical hardware for AI is a massive advantage.
As for Microsoft, they’re still riding strong AI and cloud tailwinds. They’re trading near record-highs, earning them positive analyst sentiment from Wells Fargo, BMO, and Morgan Stanley.
However, Apple isn’t getting flowers right now. They’re facing criticism over innovation stagnation, putting pressure on their long-term upside.
There are still six months before 2025 ends, but Nvidia is looking like a runaway winner in this market. 🏃➡️
🦄 A message from Groovy Market
🏌️♂️ Who Will Win the 2025 Open Championship?
The Open Championship, golf’s oldest major, will be teeing off tomorrow.
Kalshi traders are already positioning themselves ahead of the tournament at Royal Portrush. So far, two names are in a tight battle at the top.
Polymarket traders are reflecting the same sentiment, placing Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy as their top draws.
Manifold traders are taking a different route, though. Xander Schauffele joins the mix and makes it a three-way party.
⛳ Can Someone Steal the Spotlight From Scottie?
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler remains the betting favorite across most major sportsbooks. He is the top-favored choice on ESPN (+550).
Roy McIlroy has shortened odds to +750 after a runner-up finish at the Scottish Open.
Scheffler isn’t a runaway favorite, though. He is still seeking his first win at The Open. Meanwhile, McIlroy is a Northern Irish golfer who has special significance at Royal Portrush.
Jon Rahm is also a name to watch, folks. He has won two Irish Opens and has three top-seven finishes in the last four Opens.
Another name with Portrush familiarity is Tommy Fleetwood. According to CBS Sports and Golf.com, Fleetwood, Rahm, and Ludvig Aberg are dark-horse picks to win The Open.
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Stake your claim on these unique (and sometimes wild) markets on Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi.
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
👱 Trump
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? (Polymarket)
Who will leave their role in the Trump Administration this year? (Kalshi)
How will Trump leave office? (Manifold)
🎭 Culture
Will Justin Bieber's album "SWAG" debut at #1 in its first week? (Polymarket)
Which will be the Game of the Year? (Kalshi)
How high will “Smurfs” score on Rotten Tomatoes? (Kalshi)
