TDP #37: Prediction Markets Lean Bullish on Crypto
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Today, we’re laser‑focused on crypto price forecasts: Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold sentiment on $ETH, $BTC, and $SOL in July. We’re pairing the market odds with on‑chain data and historical price context so you can spot where consensus might be wrong—and where your edge lies.
Let’s dive in.
— The Daily Prediction Team
🔷 ETH: Bullish bias—but is the mirror full?
Polymarket reveals that traders are eyeing the $3,500–$4,000 range as the most likely outcome, with probabilities skewed 60% toward a mid‑to‑high July. Forecasters are aiming to see ETH in the $4,000 range by early next year.
On-chain momentum is backing that up—ETH is up +8.2% in the last 24 hours, and about +16% in the past week, trading near $3,430 at the time of writing.
Kalshi’s year-end ETH market has a majority of traders forecasting ETH finishes between $3,000 and $4,000 for 2024. The higher buckets—like $4,500–$5,000 and $5,000–$6,000—are gaining less traction, indicating a lower perceived probability at this time.
This aligns closely with Polymarket’s short-term outlook. While traders are leaning bullish in the near term, there’s still hesitation to price in a breakout beyond $4K, suggesting expectations of steady—but not explosive—growth through the rest of 2024.
🟢 ETH/BTC ratio: climbing back from troughs
The ETH/BTC ratio has been in recovery mode:
Mid‑July 2025: ~0.025–0.028 BTC per ETH after hitting near five‑year lows (~0.018) in early May .
Coingecko's data shows a climb from 0.025 to 0.029 in just 48 hours, a +16% surge.
Historically, ETH/BTC peaked around 0.0415 in November 2021, then slumped with BTC dominance and alt‑season rotations .
Polymarket’s “Will ETH/BTC hit 0.03 before October?” currently trades at 89% Yes—meaning the market expects more upside. If ETH convincingly holds above 0.026, upside forecasts on ETH July range look solid.
🟠 BTC: Holding ground—but how’s sentiment?
Polymarket asks, “Bitcoin up or down on July 17?” with about only around 10% betting on ‘Up’—down from 72%(!) just yesterday.
We covered BTC’s ATH predictions in TDP #32 and #33—here, July’s short‑term sentiment remains cautiously bullish. With BTC hovering near $117K, the market seems to expect a modest continuation into late July.
Traders worth noting: July volatility is low, but funding rates and ETF flows could be the spark if capital rotates back into spot.
🟣 SOL: Range‑bound, but breakout possible?
SOL is trading around $175–$180, up ~5% today and leading top-6 altcoins with a +5–12% weekly move, per CoinMarketCap/Coingecko . Despite the recent push, the chart shows months of sideways action, largely confined to the $150–$200 range.
Its all-time high sits near $293 (November 2021), and while sentiment is warming, Polymarket’s “What price will Solana hit in July?” suggests only a modest breakout:
🔎 And for those wondering if this strength signals something bigger—like SOL overtaking ETH—the answer is a clear “not likely.”
Kalshi’s “ETH Flipping” market asks whether SOL or another coin will flip Ethereum’s market cap by the end of 2024—and traders give that just a 3% chance.
🎯 So what’s the trade edge?
ETH: With on‑chain momentum and ETH/BTC reclaiming ground, July >$3,600 looks probable. Still, a dip below 0.027 BTC would shake that.
BTC: Slightly bullish; drawdowns seem unlikely without macro shocks.
SOL: The wild card. Trading range is clear, and market sentiment covers the risk—but a jump above $200 by month‑end could trigger a trendy alt‑season move.
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