TDP #38: Kiss Cam Chaos

See what's trending—before it happens.

Jul 18, 2025

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✍️ Editor’s note:

Lights will guide you home. But what about Andy Byron?

Byron, CEO of Astronomer, appeared in a controversial “kiss cam” during a Coldplay concert. Now, prediction markets are speculating about his future.

Speaking of cameras, all eyes are glued on the upcoming Fantastic Four movie. Can it score high enough on Rotten Tomatoes to redeem the franchise?

Let’s find the signals in these predictions. 🧐

— The Daily Prediction Team

⌛ Will Andy Byron Leave Astronomer By Next Friday?

The Astronomer lit up social media platforms yesterday, but for the wrong reasons.

Their CEO, Andy Byron, was caught on a kiss cam having an intimate moment with Kristin Cabot, the company’s Chief People Officer.

Polymarket traders are positioning big on the corporate scandal fallout. According to the current market, there’s a 50% chance that Byron will step down from his CEO role at Astronomer by July 25, 2025.

Given the global attention that this moment captured, that’s a very tight probability.

Kalshi traders are reflecting this very, very cautious sentiment.

Why are traders giving this market a 50-50 probability? Are there historical patterns of companies retaining executives’ roles despite personal fallout?

🕵️ Why the 50-50 Split?

Despite the public backlash over the incident, traders are still doubtful about whether Astronomer will part ways with CEO Andy Byron.

Why is that?

For one, Astronomer has maintained a notable silence on the controversy. They turned off comments on social media accounts. This lack of an official company statement, or even one from Byron himself, has made prediction traders hesitant.

Then, of course, some popular CEOs have survived personal fallout. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos both had their share of publicized (and rumored) controversies.

Still, this scandal will have a negative impact on Astronomer’s reputation. A decline in investors’ confidence could force the company to make a statement. Widespread negative media coverage could even be critical to employee morale.

But until there’s a clear precedent saying Astronomer’s board will act decisively, expect this prediction market to be a 50-50 split. 🟰

📽️ How High Will “The Fantastic Four” Score on Rotten Tomatoes?

The upcoming Marvel Cinematic Universe reboot, “The Fantastic Four: First Steps”, is already generating significant buzz. The movie is set to premiere in theaters next week, prompting people to speculate about its quality.

A solid public reception, especially from critics, could catapult The Fantastic Four franchise back to prominence.

Kalshi traders are optimistic about the movie’s chances.

On Polymarket, you can predict the highest-grossing movie in 2025. “Zootopia 2” is at the top of the list, with “A Minecraft Movie” closely trailing behind.

Meanwhile, the Fantastic Four only has a 3% probability of winning this market. Can they defy the odds?

🗣️ What the Experts Say

Business Insider’s historical rankings show prior Fantastic Four films scoring poorly. But this reboot has cracks of potential, thanks to strong talent and fresh direction.

This is definitely a talented cast, including Pedro Pascal (Reed Richards), Vanessa Kirby (Sue Storm), Joseph Quinn (Johnny Storm), and Ebon Moss-Bachrach (Ben Grimm). Matt Shakman, known for his work on WandaVision, is the movie’s director.

Also, The Guardian notes a potential “major tonal departure”, which hints that Galactus may even win.

Box office projections are also at a high, as the movie is looking at a $100M-$125M domestic opening.

But let’s see how Fantastic Four does on Rotten Tomatoes first. The franchise’s highest score is 37% (Rise of the Silver Surfer). Yikes. 😫