TDP #41: $BNB Breakthrough

See what's trending—before it happens.

Jul 23, 2025

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✍️ Editor’s note:

BNB just shattered previous highs! 🎆

$BNB surged past $800 today after over 9% gains last week. It’s a validation (sort of) of Binance’s ecosystem, as traders position for what many believe could be a dominant rally in July.

Speaking of dominance, SpaceX might be facing stiff competition against President Trump’s Golden Dome project.

Most importantly, prediction markets have live speculations on these topics. Let’s explore the signals below. 🕵️

— The Daily Prediction Team

🪙 Will Binance Collapse Before the End of 2025?

Nope. Probably not.

Not after BNB breaking past the $800 mark for the first time. 💪

So, it’s not a surprise that prediction markets are bullish on Binance’s foreseeable potential. In fact, Manifold’s market on a possible Binance collapse is on its lowest probability today.

Manifold’s criteria for a Binance collapse are as follows:

No withdrawals for 14 days
BNB market cap going below $1B for at least 14 days
Binance filing for bankruptcy

Recent developments suggest that these won’t happen, though. Let’s explore more of BNB’s potential below.

🔎 Current BNB Snapshot

After breaching the $800 mark, BNB (Binance Coin) is now hovering at around $798.23.

BNB vaulted past its prior ATH thanks to the following factors:

A 1.5M token burn
Institutional accumulation, including Nano Labs adding 120K BNB
A Maxwell node upgrade on the BNB Chain

CoinCentral notes that BNB’s surge is driven by “strategic burns, ecosystem growth, and investor confidence”.

It also helps that Binance overcame an SEC lawsuit in late May, which could have boosted regulatory sentiment.

Moreover, innovation could be boosting BNB’s performance on the market. Imagen Network recently announced its compatibility with Binance Wallet, enhancing Web3 utility for users.

Binance has a history of successfully navigating regulatory pressures and market volatility. It might be a while before we would continue talks of a potential Binance collapse. Or maybe not at all. 🤷‍♂️

⚖️ Will Trump Punish SpaceX?

The White House might be veering away from Elon Musk, slowly and steadily.

According to Reuters, the Pentagon is “looking beyond SpaceX” for the Golden Dome project. This could be a result of the fallout between Trump and Musk.

As such, prediction markets are speculating whether Trump will punish Musk’s SpaceX. Kalshi traders are already on it.

This Kalshi market will resolve to “Yes” if one of these events happens:

NASA or Department of Defense cancels any of SpaceX’s contracts or excludes them from bidding
Congress passes a law or the President signs an Executive Order with anti-SpaceX provisions

🥊 The Gloves Are Out

The Trump administration wants to reduce dependency on SpaceX. They are actively seeking alternatives for its $175 billion “Golden Dome” missile-defense project.

Some of the names that have propped up are Amazon’s Project Kuiper, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, L3Harris, and Rocket Lab.

Elon Musk has called out the government for “breaking the law”, referring to them freezing out his company amidst the Golden Dome re-shuffle. But Musk himself has publicly stated that SpaceX “has not tried to bid for any contract in this regard”.

Still, SpaceX is a crucial component of the US government. Analysts say that Trump can’t easily cut ties with Musk, given that SpaceX handles over 80% of the country’s satellite launches.

Moreover, SpaceX’s launch capabilities are still unmatched. Hear it from the man himself: