TDP #42: Obama in the Crosshairs
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Hey there, TDP readers!
It’s turning out to be a wild Wednesday. President Trump has zeroed in on Barack Obama again, calling for treason charges and even jailing. Is this pure theatrics, or is there some truth to these accusations?
Meanwhile, BlackRock has dropped millions into ETH and BTC, making waves in the digital asset space. Institutional adoption is driving the next crypto wave, isn’t it?
Prediction markets are already buzzing about these things. Let’s explore more below. 👇
— The Daily Prediction Team
⚖️ Trump and Gaddard’s Accusations on Obama
Tariffs. Elon Musk fallout. Barack Obama accusations.
President Trump has recently forged himself some big-name enemies.
Recently, Trump has publicly demanded Obama’s arrest, citing alleged “treason” connected to the 2016 Russia probe. But at the time, Trump couldn’t provide any evidence.
Then fast forward to today, Trump has found an ally in his intel chief, Tulsi Gabbard. Gabbard pointed to members of the Obama administration for a “years-long coup” against Trump.
So naturally, prediction markets are talking about this Trump-Obama debacle. A new prediction has popped up on Polymarket, as traders speculate about a possible Obama arrest in 2025. Not surprisingly, the odds are very low.
On Manifold, the odds of Obama being arrested are lower.
Kalshi has a more interesting market, but with a general approach. You can predict which of the given names will be arrested before 2027. John Brennan, James Clapper, and Obama are leading the list.
🕵️ Is This Just a Distraction?
Is this a calculated distraction from the mounting pressure over his Epstein connections? Or is Trump just cooking here?
Guardian columnist Jan-Werner Muller isn’t convinced. He says that Trump’s tactic is faltering this time, pointing to the still-mounting legal scrutiny over Epstein.
When directly questioned about Epstein, Trump has been redirecting the conversation. Take, for example, Trump’s Oval Office meeting with the Philippine President, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Trump sidestepped questions about Maxwell and instead launched into a tirade about Obama’s “treason.”
Also, Obama has already made a response to Trump’s claim. Patrick Rodenbush, a spokesperson for Obama, explicitly called Trump’s accusations “ridiculous and a weak attempt at distraction.”
Moreover, an Obama arrest would shake US politics. That’s a possibility that the Trump administration might want to veer away from.
🪙 BlackRock Bets Big on ETH and BTC
Amid the surging altcoin rally, BlackRock is boosting its Ethereum holdings even more.
BlackRock just purchased $332.2M worth of Ethereum, along with $142M worth of Bitcoin. This institutional capital could be a driver for price surges for both coins.
In fact, prediction markets are already bullish on their chances. On Polymarket, Bitcoin’s chances of hitting $125K this month are trending upwards.
Meanwhile, Ethereum’s potential is also rising on the Kalshi platform. Traders there are now giving a higher chance for ETH to hit $4,500 or even $5,000.
This might be a good time to be bullish, folks. 📈
🤑 In Public Demand
BlackRock’s ETHA ETF attracted $426M on July 22 and another $324M on July 24. Oh, and we can’t forget the record $546.7M inflow last July 17.
All in all, that’s over $2.1B in just 10 days.
Meanwhile, Spot BTC ETFs have added $6.62B over 12 days in July. Net inflows have totaled $14.8B, pushing BTC to an ATH this month.
These inflows could send crypto, as a whole, higher. When legacy titans like BlackRock pile in, the “risk-free rate” for crypto drops sharply.
Moreover, institutional buying fuels breakouts and short squeezes. BTC is in price discovery mode, while ETH is breaking out of consolidation zones.
Analysts now see $4,500-$5,000+ ETH by year-end, while forecasts see BTC going as high as $130K-$140K+. If institutional demand continues, the potential is through the roof. 🚀
🦄 A message from Groovy Market
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
👱 Trump
How low will Trump's approval rating go before August? (Polymarket)
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? (Kalshi)
Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump? (Manifold)
🎭 Culture
Did Ozzy Osbourne die via assisted euthanasia? (Manifold)
How high will “The Naked Gun” score on Rotten Tomatoes? (Kalshi)
Which 2025 Marvel movie has the highest worldwide box office gross? (Manifold)
