TDP #44: Trump's EU Trade Anchor Lands
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Markets woke up to history today as Trump announced the US and EU reached a framework for a trade deal. This ends the months-long saga between America and its largest trading partner. 💯
Meanwhile, ETH blasted past $3,900, with an eye towards the $4,089 liquidity zone. Can Ethereum continue its seemingly unstoppable march upward?
The markets are electric today, as well as prediction traders.
— The Daily Prediction Team
💰 Trump Negotiates Landmark Trade Deal with EU
The dust has finally settled in.
President Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have finalized a framework deal imposing 15% tariffs on EU goods. That’s down from a threatened 30% rate, averting a broader trade war.
With the EU deal on the books, prediction markets are still speculating which countries will strike a trade deal with the US. On Polymarket, South Korea is leading the odds with 69%.
Here’s a snapshot of the market:
The next top options on Polymarket are as follows:
China: 49%
Argentina: 44%
Israel: 31%
Mexico: 28%
India: 27%
You can also place your prediction on a similar Kalshi market.
The odds are tight on Kalshi, but here are the current top options:
Thailand: 29%
Canada: 21%
Israel: 21%
South Korea: 20%
United Kingdom: 19%
🧐 What It Looks Like on Both Sides
The White House looks at the US-EU trade deal as a “huge and powerful” one. Not surprising, of course.
But what do analysts say about this deal? How does it look from the other side of the table?
For the US, it is “another big win” for Trump’s campaign to transform the global economy. Remember, the EU also agreed to $600B in US investments and $750B in energy purchases.
However, CNBC does note that aircraft, and some chemicals and pharmaceuticals, will remain tariff-free. Still, this tariff framework could serve as a template for future deals.
As for the EU’s side of the table, Ursula von der Leyen defended the deal as “the best we could get”. She pointed out that Europe was under substantial pressure and lacked bargaining leverage.
For investors, the instant reaction looks promising. Equity and futures markets surged, the euro strengthened, and volatility eased.
Meanwhile, trade analysts note that the EU deal mirrors prior agreements with Japan: tariffs plus purchase pledges. The Atlantic Council calls the pact “a reality check” on Europe’s ability to bargain.
Of course, the elephant in the room is Trump’s tariff negotiations with China. They’re expected to launch new talks soon. Can Trump work his supposed “magic” again?
🪙 What’s Stopping Ethereum’s Rally?
Don’t look now, but ETH is in full rally mode. 🏎️
July ETF inflows exceeded $3.28B, pushing Ethereum’s dominance above 11%. That puts it ahead of BTC inflows.
As such, prediction traders are increasingly bullish on ETH’s year-end peak. Hitting $4,000 is almost a formality now for Ethereum, at least according to Kalshi traders.
ETH breaching the $4,500 threshold is now at 70% probability on Kalshi, while the $5,000 option is at 54%.
On Manifold, you can predict whether Ethereum will hit $5,000 before October 2025. Traders are now giving this market a 40% chance to resolve to “Yes”.
What is driving ETH’s momentum, and what do analysts say about its potential?
🔎 Current Ethereum Snapshot
As of July 28, 2025, ETH is trading at around $3,873.46.
Ethereum ETFs saw over $450M in net inflows last week alone. That marks 17 straight days of green. 🟢
What’s truly amazing is that ETH has consistently outperformed Bitcoin and other altcoins. It has hit its highest price since December 2024 and experienced over a 50% surge since the start of July.
The Economic Times reported that Ethereum’s rally is largely driven by “record-breaking ETF inflows” and “whale accumulation.” It’s serious money entering the ecosystem, with Glassnode reporting whale wallets accumulating 800,000 ETH daily in the last two weeks.
Moreover, reputable analysts are significantly raising their price targets for ETH. Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors suggests that Ethereum could reach $10,000 to $15,000 by the end of 2025. Well, woah.
Colin Talks Crypto offers an even more bullish outlook, predicting $15,000 to $20,000 within the current bull cycle.
Most importantly, Ethereum has cleared major resistance levels, trading well above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Its daily gas usage hit an all-time high, indicating robust on-chain activity and real-world adoption.
It just might be time to go all-in on ETH. What do you think? 🤔
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🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
💵 Fed
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Who will Trump announce as the next Fed Chair? (Polymarket)
Fed decision in July? (Kalshi)
🎭 Culture
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What will be the most-streamed song on 'DON'T TAP THE GLASS' by Friday? (Kalshi)
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