TDP #45: US-China Trade Talks Resume

See what's trending—before it happens.

Jul 29, 2025

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✍️ Editor’s note:

Welcome to Issue #45 of The Daily Prediction!

Today’s edition juggles two high-stakes narratives: Ghislaine Maxwell has formally petitioned the Supreme Court to overturn her sex-trafficking conviction. Meanwhile, President Trump is eyeing a major trade pact with China as their negotiations resume on Tuesday.

We’ll analyze what prediction markets are saying about these narratives and dive deep into related odds. 📈

— The Daily Prediction Team

🧑‍⚖️ Will Trump Pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?

Yesterday, Ghislaine Maxwell filed an appeal with the US Supreme Court, seeking to overturn her sex-trafficking conviction. She argues that a 2007 non-prosecution agreement (NPA) with Jeffrey Epstein in Florida should have barred her prosecution in New York.

However, the DOJ has urged the Supreme Court to deny her appeal, asserting that the NPA does not immunize her.

These events have fueled speculation about a potential pardon. Will Trump pardon Maxwell? That’s a trending question on prediction markets right now.

The odds of that happening are steadily increasing on Polymarket.

Kalshi traders are mirroring this sentiment from Polymarket. They’re giving Maxwell a 21% chance of being pardoned by the President.

Now, what are analysts saying about this possible pardon? Let’s explore below.

🗣️ What the Analysts Are Saying

Legal commentators caution that no precedent exists for pardoning a convicted sex trafficker under such circumstances. Therefore, clemency remains an unlikely outcome.

Atlantic Council analysts reflect this claim as well. They believe that Maxwell may be used as a leverage tool, but explicit clemency remains highly improbable.

Some notable political figures are also expressing their skepticism. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, for instance, has expressed “great pause” about granting clemency to Maxwell, emphasizing the gravity of her crimes.

Still, Trump hasn’t ruled out a pardon for Maxwell. But he’s extremely careful with his words. When questioned about the pardon, he repeatedly said that it’s “inappropriate to talk about it right now.”

After all, a pardon for an individual convicted of such a high-profile crime, especially involving sexual abuse of minors, is exceedingly rare and carries immense political risk.

Plus, the DOJ is actively opposing Maxwell’s appeal, making this judicial overturn a very long shot.

The future is uncertain, but don’t expect this market to resolve to a “Yes” anytime soon.

💵 US and China Resume Trade Talks

US-China trade talks resumed in Stockholm, aiming to extend the tariff truce that currently limits US tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US imports to 10%.

This truce expires on August 12, creating a sense of urgency for the two countries to reach a trade agreement soon.

The ongoing talks have prompted prediction traders to speculate about how high the US tariff rate will be on China.

There’s an overwhelming favorite among Polymarket traders. Here are the top options:

25-40%: 81%
Above 25%: 8%
40-60%: 8%
60-100%: 2%

Polymarket traders are also placing a 90% probability that the two countries will come to a trade agreement before August 12.

🗣️ What the Analysts Are Saying

Hold your horses.

Multiple sources, including The Japan Times and The Times of India, cite unnamed sources suggesting that an extension of the current 90-day tariff pause is the most probable outcome of the Stockholm talks. This would prevent the “snap-back” of tariffs to extremely high levels.

According to The Economic Times, the current talks might be more about “de-escalation” and “warming relations”, rather than achieving a grand bargain. As such, a potential agreement might be inclined to maintain current tariff levels.

After all, analysts warn that without an extension, tariffs could revert to above 100%, disrupting supply chains.

So yes, the dialogue might be focused on extending the existing truce: US tariffs remain near 30% and Chinese tariffs hover around 10%.

The Stockholm talks will be on their second day today. Let’s see what headlines pop up later this afternoon. 📰