TDP #46: Powell Speaks, Oceans Roar

See what's trending—before it happens.

Jul 30, 2025

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✍️ Editor’s note:

Today’s issue pivots between soaring market tension and literal ocean tremors.

The Federal Reserve delivers its July press conference today, holding rates steady while markets digest Jerome Powell’s message.

Meanwhile, tsunami alerts sweep across Japan and Hawaii after a massive 8.8-magnitude quake off Kamchatka.

We unpack how prediction markets retrace both monetary policy and ocean risk signals in real time. 🟢🔴

— The Daily Prediction Team

💵 Spotlight Shines on Fed Decision in July

The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting. That’s despite President Donald Trump’s big push for lower rates.

If this becomes true, this will mark the fifth consecutive hold. This reflects the sentiment on prediction platforms, including Polymarket.

A staggering 97% of Polymarket traders believe that there will be no change in the Fed interest rates.

Kalshi traders are forecasting a range of above 4.25%, which is the status quo.

Media outlets and prediction markets believe that interest rates will stay the same this July. Is there a bit of wiggle room for a change?

🗣️ What the Analysts Are Saying

Yields, labor, inflation, and growth data converge around the status quo. The Fed has withheld cuts despite modest slowdown signs, reinforcing expectations that nothing will change.

Kiplinger echoes this consensus. No rate change is expected, pointing to Powell’s cautious language. Investopedia also cited CME data, showing 97% market odds for holding.

Since December 2024, rates have remained in the 4.25%-4.50% range. This reflects ongoing inflation control and labor resilience.

While some Fed voices urge immediate cuts, others advocate patience. But do you know who is growing impatient?

The President, of course.

The Trump pressure might not work again this time, though. We might have to look ahead to the September Fed decision. Interestingly, Polymarket traders are giving a 56% chance for a 25 bps decrease.

Let’s see if Powell and the Fed will give in by then. 🤞

🌊 Japan, Hawaii Receive Tsunami Advisories

A massive magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, triggering widespread tsunami warnings across the Pacific, including Japan and Hawaii.

This has brought a certain Manifold market to the spotlight.

This market has been tracking the eerie prophecy of manga artist Ryo Tatsuki, and it has suddenly become relevant since the earthquake struck. Tatsuki predicted that a mega-tsunami would occur this month, one she claimed would be “three times larger than the 2011 disaster”.

😓 How Did This Happen?

Early July saw nearly 1,200 earthquakes near the Tokara Islands in Southwest Japan. This series of quakes includes ones above magnitude 5.5, causing widespread anxiety.

Today’s 8.8 earthquake prompted Japan to swiftly issue tsunami warnings for its Pacific coastal regions, from Hokkaido to Wakayama Prefecture.

The Japan Meteorological Agency initially predicted waves up to 3 meters. While initial waves observed were smaller, including 30 cm in Nemuro and 1.3 meters in Kuji Port, authorities urged continued vigilance as subsequent waves could be larger.

Japan’s location on the “Ring of Fire” makes it one of the most seismically active regions globally. In fact, it accounts for about one-fifth of the world’s earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher.

Along with Japan, Hawaii is also facing a significant threat, with emergency sirens blaring across islands like Oahu. While initially a warning, Hawaii later downgraded to a tsunami advisory as the immediate threat seemed to subside.

We’re united in prayers for Japan and Hawaii. This is one of the prediction markets that we don’t want to resolve to a “Yes”. 🙏