TDP #47: Is Piastri Already Better Than Norris?

See what's trending—before it happens.

Dollar Trade

Jul 31, 2025

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✍️ Editor’s note:

Former Vice President Kamala Harris has decided not to run for California governor. What does that mean?

Does it point to Kamala’s presidential aspirations in 2028?

Meanwhile, Formula 1’s Hungarian Grand Prix is closing in. The two McLaren boys are pegged to dominate the competition once again.

What are the odds of these markets on prediction platforms? Let’s find out below. 👇

— The Daily Prediction Team

😲 Kamala Harris Decides Not to Run for California Governor

Yesterday, Kamala Harris officially ruled out a run for California governor. This move has triggered a new wave of speculation that she’s keeping her path clear for a second run at the White House.

And traders on prediction markets are responding in kind.

On Kalshi, Harris’s probability to run for the Democratic presidential nomination has increased by 15%.

However, Harris’s probability is still way lower than the top options. Gavin Newsom still leads this race on Kalshi:

Gavin Newsom: 84%
Pete Buttigieg: 84%
Josh Shapiro: 75%
J.B. Pritzker: 72%
Andy Beshear: 71%

In fact, Newsom is trailing JD Vance in Polymarket’s predictions for the 2028 presidential election winner.

🗣️ What the Analysts Are Saying

Harris’s decision to sidestep the Califonia gubernatorial race in 2026 removes a major distraction. Following her loss in the 2024 presidential election, Harris considered running for governor of California, but she has now opted not to.

Did she effectively clear her path for a re-run to the White House in 2028?

We’ll see, but that path might be a difficult one.

As noted by NBC News, Democrats are already “positioning themselves” for 2028. Potential candidates might be making stops in key primary states like South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa.

Analysts even believe that up to 30 high-profile Democrats could enter the primary. There’s even a storyline for Michelle Obama running in 2028, but there are no serious activities in her camp yet.

Still, Harris has the chance to make a second run at the presidency. After all, she’s supported by her national recognition, infrastructure, and endorsement base.

Will Harris capitalize on the “comeback kid” storyline? 🔮

🏎️ Who Will Win the F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?

The 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix is just around the corner, with the Free Practices scheduled for tomorrow.

Will we see another battle between the two McLaren boys at the top? Or will Max Verstappen work his magic again in a slower car?

So far, Polymarket traders are bullish on a McLaren duel (yet again). Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris are leading the predictions:

Oscar Piastri: 40%
Lando Norris: 36%
Max Verstappen: 13%
Charles Leclerc: 7%
Lewis Hamilton: 3%

On Kalshi, you can also predict which drivers will finish on the podium. Essentially, you can choose three options.

As expected, Piastri, Norris, and Verstappen are leading this Kalshi market.

🥊 Is Piastri Already Quicker (and Better) Than Norris?

Former F1 champion Nico Rosberg recently weighed in, stating that Piastri possesses “no weaknesses” and has demonstrated superior decision-making under pressure.

Piastri is now leading the Driver’s Standings by 16 points over Norris. Here are the Top 10 drivers heading into the final race before the summer break:

Sky Sports F1 expert Martin Brundle has this to say:

“When all the stars align, I believe Lando is marginally the faster. But Oscar is more consistent, makes fewer errors, and is more clinical in combat. And his head is always rock solid.”

Piastri also won the Hungarian Grand Prix last year, with Norris and Lewis Hamilton completing the podium places. The Australian driver winning the last timeout in Belgium also gives him much-needed momentum.

F1’s betting guide also gives Piastri the best odds to win in Hungaroring.