TDP #52: Trump Expands 401(k) to Crypto
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
President Donald Trump will sign an executive order that aims to allow cryptocurrency, private equity, real estate, and other alternative assets in 401(k) plans.
It’s a major victory for industries looking to tap some of the roughly $12.5 trillion held in those retirement accounts.
Prediction markets are also talking about the Nobel Peace Prize, where Trump and Elon Musk are listed on Polymarket (!!!). But who are the real contenders? Let’s find out. 🏆
— The Daily Prediction Team
🪙 Cryptocurrency Enters 401(k)
Today’s news is a game-changer. President Donald Trump is set to sign an executive order that would pave the way for 401(k) retirement plans to invest in alternative assets, including cryptocurrency.
Crypto proponents see this as a monumental step that could channel "billions of dollars" of fresh capital into the market, providing a powerful demand-side shock.
As such, prediction markets are buzzing about how this could affect Bitcoin. The early returns are optimistic.
On Polymarket, the percentage of traders who believe that BTC will hit $150,000 in 2025 has increased by 6%.
Meanwhile, Kalshi traders are still cautious of BTC’s trend.
Manifold’s Bitcoin-$200K market has increased its probability by not as much.
📈 Can Today’s News Significantly Impact Bitcoin?
This 401(k) news comes at a critical time. The crypto market just experienced a turbulent week, with Bitcoin dipping below $115,000 due to significant spot ETF outflows and macroeconomic concerns.
The timing of Trump’s announcement provides a crucial bullish counter-narrative, shifting the focus from short-term market fears to long-term institutional adoption.
The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 has set a strong foundation for institutional inflows. Now, retirement funds could provide a sustained and systemic demand.
Analysts at Morningstar and ARK Invest have forecast that if crypto becomes 401(k)-eligible, we could see inflows of $20–30 billion within 12 months, especially from millennial investors.
Per Bloomberg Law, this is the “biggest move yet” by the Trump administration in bringing private assets like crypto to defined-contribution accounts.
Could this put a stop to crypto’s downward spiral as of late? We’ll see, but at least today, everything is green. 🟢
🏆 Who Will Win the Nobel Peace Prize?
Speaking of Trump, did you know that he is in the running for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize? Well, at least according to a certain Polymarket prediction, he and Elon Musk are battling it out for the award.
Gotcha.
That’s just a meme stock on Polymarket, of course.
The real Polymarket prediction on the Nobel Peace Prize is led by Yulia Navalnaya. Trump is still in the list, but he is down to fourth place.
Kalshi traders also have Navalnaya (24%) on the front, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy (9%) in far second.
🥇 Is Navalnaya a Sure Bet?
Following her husband’s death in a Siberian penal colony in February 2024, Yulia Navalnaya stepped into the international spotlight, vowing to continue the fight against Vladimir Putin's regime.
She has become a powerful symbol of resistance and a voice for democracy and human rights. This aligns perfectly with the Nobel Peace Prize's history of honoring individuals who stand against authoritarianism.
Since last year, Navalnaya has become the chairperson of the Human Rights Foundation, and she also leads the Anti-Corruption Foundation. These important roles position her as more than just a symbolic figure.
The narrative of a widow taking up her martyred husband's cause is compelling.
Historically, the Nobel Committee has often awarded the prize to individuals or organizations working on a recent, prominent issue. That makes Navalnaya a very strong favorite for this year’s award. 👏
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🏀 Sports
Another dildo thrown at a WNBA game by Friday? (Polymarket)
Which team will win the 2025 Leagues Cup? (Manifold)
Color of next WNBA dildo? (Manifold)
🎭 Culture
How many consecutive weeks will "Squid Game: Season 3" stay in the Netflix Top 10? (Manifold)
"Weapons" opening weekend box office (Polymarket)
Game of the year? (Kalshi)
