TDP #55: Elon Musk Takes On Apple
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Elon Musk publicly vowed legal action against Apple today, alleging the App Store is tilting rankings toward OpenAI’s ChatGPT and away from his xAI/Grok and X apps.
If there’s something that we know about Musk, he’s not going to back down from a fight he believes in.
Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Open is heating up, with the quarterfinals just on the horizon. Will a dark horse challenge the likes of Sinner and Alcaraz?
There’s plenty to unpack in today’s newsletter. Let’s get the ball rolling. 🎾
— The Daily Prediction Team
📱 What is the Top US iPhone App Tomorrow?
Elon Musk is again on the battlefield.
The polarizing billionaire figure has now taken on a public feud with Apple for what he argues is an “unequivocal antitrust violation” on the latter’s part. He alleges that Apple is favoring OpenAI’s ChatGPT over his xAI apps Grok and X in the App Store rankings.
As of today, Grok is only listed as 5th in the rankings, with ChatGPT in the top spot. X is way down at the 33rd spot.
Of course, prediction platforms already had an ongoing market for this argument way before Musk questioned Apple’s rankings. On Kalshi, you can predict the top US iPhone app for the next day.
However, Grok or X aren’t included in the list of markets, even in the runner-up prediction.
Even prediction people don’t believe that the xAI apps are up there in the rankings. Now, how does Grok stack up against its “real-life” AI competitors?
📊 AI Rankings
In the AI model rankings, Grok isn’t doing very good, either. GPT-5 is currently holding the top spot in the AI text model rankings, with Gemini and Claude AI trailing behind.
The GPT-5 rollout this month gained mixed user reactions, though. Bugs and hallucinations have proved to be a challenge for OpenAI’s new flagship product. Analysts note GPT-5 improves coding and long-context tasks, but real-world errors still exist.
After all, new flagship models (GPT-5, Grok-4, Llama 4) often leap forward on specific benchmarks. Expect reshuffles soon, especially across MMLU, HumanEval, and coding tests.
If you’re curious about the ins and outs of the new GPT-5, the Vergecast talked about it here 👇
🎾 Who Will Win the Cincinnati Open?
The Cincy Open is heating up into Round 4.
World #1 Jannik Sinner just won against the Canadian young star Gabriel Diallo yesterday, advancing into the fourth round of the Men’s Draw.
Meanwhile, women’s top-ranked player Aryna Sabalenka survived a tough match against Emma Radacanu.
With both top-ranked players surviving into the fourth round, prediction markets are speculating which challengers will rise to the occasion.
On the men’s side, Polymarket traders are giving Carlos Alcaraz a 25% chance to beat Sinner. Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev are also receiving votes.
For the women’s side, Sabalenka is an overwhelming favorite. But the next four, namely Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Madison Keys, and Elena Rybakina, are closely bunched up.
You can also place a prediction on individual matches on Kalshi. The platform also provides a live score to go with the odds.
🏆 Are Sinner and Sabalenka Sure Shots?
According to RotoWire experts, they favor top seeds Sinner and Sabalenka on fast courts. Analysts also note that Sinner, Sabalenka, and Alcaraz have been dealt tough but doable paths in this year’s expanded draw format.
This takes us to Alcaraz, the 22-year-old Spaniard who’s yet to win a title in the Cincy Open. He reached the Final in 2023 but eventually lost to Novak Djokovic in a grueling match. Last year, he exited early in the second round after losing to Gael Monfils.
Alcaraz is back in the draw and is looking sharp.
For the women’s draw, Swiatek and Gauff are Sabalenka’s toughest competitors. But Gauff, despite winning here in 2023, has not consistently progressed past the second round outside of that year, while Swiatek has yet to reach a final in Cincinnati.
Sinner and Sabalenka are the defending champions of this tournament, and it’s looking like they’re going to blast through the competition again. 🚀
🦄 A message from Groovy Market
🧐 Punting on the Peculiar
Warning, though: This list isn’t for everyone!
⚖️ Politics
U.S. tariff rate on China on August 15? (Polymarket)
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? (Kalshi)
Will Nick Fuentes go on Joe Rogan before the end of Trump's term? (Manifold)
🎭 Culture
Top Spotify Artist 2025? (Polymarket)
Will Taylor Swift release an album this month? (Kalshi)
What will be true of Taylor Swift's next album, The Life of a Showgirl? (Manifold)
