TDP #58: What Will Happen in Today's Trump-Putin Meeting?
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Today’s Trump–Putin sit-down in Alaska is the rare geopolitical event that prediction markets can chew on in real time.
Traders aren’t just asking if there will be progress on Ukraine. They’re also speculating about the exact words Trump might say on stage, and even how long they will shake hands.
There’s still time for you to predict these “mini-events”. ⌛
— The Daily Prediction Team
🤝 Trump-Putin Meeting Markets
As President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Alaska today to discuss a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war, prediction markets are offering real-time speculations on this high-stakes event.
Let’s get right to it.
First off, we have a Polymarket prediction on the words that Trump will say in the conference. Here’s a snapshot:
Now, look at the top options in this market:
Zelensky: 91%
Ceasefire: 70%
Steve/Witkoff: 69%
Secondary tariff/Sanction: 69%
BRICS/NATO: 69%
You can also predict how many seconds Trump and Putin will shake hands today. Yeah, you read that right. Kalshi has a market for that.
1-2 seconds is almost a given, but you can spice it up by predicting a longer duration.
Care to be more intimate? Polymarket has got you covered.
Stay glued to your TV screens, and see if Trump and Putin will hug it out before or after their talk.
How about real emotions?
You can also go to Polymarket to predict whether Trump praises Putin (86% probability) or calls the Russian president crazy (7% probability).
If you feel that something unusual will happen to Putin, you can bet on your feelings and place your money on this Manifold market.
On a more serious note, the Associated Press and others are reporting that while the summit offers Trump a chance to fulfill his campaign promise of a peace deal, there are significant risks involved.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has described the summit as a "listening exercise" to get a clearer sense of Putin's intentions, seemingly tempering expectations.
This will be the first meeting between Trump and Putin since Trump was re-elected in 2024. Plenty is expected out of this meeting, but there’s one that stands out.
⚠️ Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Emerge From the Meeting?
Trump aims to “squeeze a ceasefire deal” from Putin. Will it happen today, tomorrow, or ever?
President Trump has given conflicting signals, claiming he will know "within minutes" if a deal is possible. So naturally, people are predicting whether a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire will happen right after the meeting today.
However, most Manifold traders don’t see that happening.
On Polymarket, you can place your money on the ceasefire happening this year. The probability is higher in this specific market, with 35% of Polymarket traders believing in a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
🗣️ What Analysts Say
Per The Guardian, peace remains a mirage between Russia and Ukraine. Russia demands territorial control and Ukrainian neutrality; Ukraine insists on no territorial concessions.
Ukraine President Zelenskyy’s government is constitutionally barred from ceding territory. He recently met with UK Prime Minister Starmer, who said any peace agreement must include "security guarantees for Ukraine."
ABC News describes the Trump-Putin talk as a “feel-out meeting”. Trump says success leads to a possible follow-up with Zelenskyy.
Many diplomacy watchers (e.g., ABC’s Bill Taylor and Atlantic Council’s Ian Brzezinski) emphasize that a ceasefire, if it occurs, should be structured with lasting security guarantees, not just a temporary pause.
Trump did provide Putin a stern warning. There will be “severe consequences” if Putin doesn’t agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine.
Expect a bit of fireworks, everyone.
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