TDP #59: Bitcoin Bulls Take a Breather

See what's trending—before it happens.

Aug 18, 2025

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✍️ Editor’s note:

Talk about market volatility.

The crypto rollercoaster took a breather this weekend, with Bitcoin dropping below the $115,000 mark. It reminded everyone that even the most bullish markets need to catch their breath.

Ethereum has also slowed down its roll last weekend, although it is steadily holding ground as of the moment.

What are prediction markets telling us about these crypto giants? Let’s find out. 👇

— The Daily Prediction Team

📉 Bitcoin is Catching the Cold

Following a period of record-breaking highs, the crypto market has dipped.

After Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $124,000 on August 14, it has since retraced to around $115,500.

As such, people are now speculating if Bitcoin will dip below $100,000 this year. The probability is getting higher as the days pass by. On Polymarket, 54% of traders are getting bearish.

This sentiment can also be seen on Kalshi. Traders there are giving Bitcoin a 47% probability of dipping below $100,000, with a significant 32% believing that it will reach further into $90,000.

According to prediction markets, Bitcoin isn’t doing well right now. But how do analysts see this trend from a trained set of eyes?

🗣️ What Analysts Say

As of August 18, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $115,313.

An average of a 2.5% drop in Bitcoin came as a sell-off pressured markets amid inflation and rate-cut skepticism.

According to an analyst from The Economic Times, the dip is a "perfect correction" for the market. Forecasts suggest a potential re-test of the $100,000 support level before a new leg up.

A CoinDesk article also reflects this sentiment. Analysts call it a “healthy pullback.” Liquidations exceeded $1B, but bullish momentum drivers are still intact.

BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes is even more bullish on the long-term. Assuming a Fed pivot, he believes that BTC can still reach $250,000 this year.

Past cycles show that after new ATHs, Bitcoin frequently retraces 10–25%. This could be a natural cooldown, rather than a reversal.

But when will BTC go green again? Is $150,000 still a realistic target in September?

💪 Is Ethereum Staying Strong?

As a whole, the crypto market experienced a shakedown. Ethereum was not an exception, as it dipped by 5% last weekend.

Despite this recent dip, ETH’s performance this month has been impressive. It has doubled over the past three months, signaling a strong breakout.

That’s why prediction markets aren’t totally lost on Ethereum’s downward momentum. Most Kalshi traders are still bullish on ETH reaching $5,000 in 2025.

Polymarket traders almost mirror this sentiment from Kalshi. They’re giving Ethereum a 67% chance of hitting $5,000 this year, just 1% higher than Kalshi traders.

🗣️ What Analysts Say

As of August 18, 2025, Ethereum is trading around $4,280.80.

It’s a significant dip from its highs of the previous weeks, but Ethereum appears to hold up well.

A major driver for Ethereum's strength is institutional buying. Reports indicate that the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) has become one of the fastest ETFs in history to reach the $10 billion mark.

Standard Chartered just raised its ETH target to $7,500 by end-2025, citing stablecoin regulation (GENIUS Act) and institutional demand as key catalysts, with a long-term goal of $25,000 by 2028.

Tom Lee of Fundstrat sees $10,000 ETH on the table if institutional inflows and ETF infrastructure continue building. He flags ETH as a “major long-term investment opportunity.”

So, are you panicking after this ETH slide? According to CoinCentral, you shouldn’t be. They say that a 6% slide is normal after explosive moves; Ethereum’s longer-term story remains intact.

Analysts aren’t bearish on ETH, and frankly, the whole crypto space. Maybe we should trust them? 🤔