TDP #61: Vance Mode On For Elon Musk

See what's trending—before it happens.

Aug 20, 2025

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✍️ Editor’s note:

Rumors are flying that Elon Musk could bless JD Vance with an early nudge toward 2028.

Musk’s silence on the 2028 Presidential race has been as loud as one of his rocket launches, but recent movements on prediction markets suggest a key shift.

How will a Musk endorsement boost Vance’s presidential aspirations? Prediction markets might have an answer for us.

— The Daily Prediction Team

🤝 Will Elon Musk Really Endorse JD Vance for the Presidency?

Elon Musk might just abandon his new political party plans.

Reports say that Musk is leaning toward financially backing a potential JD Vance presidential run in 2028. The Wall Street Journal says that Musk is backing out of building a new party to preserve GOP unity.

A nod from Musk could provide Vance with a massive fundraising boost and an unparalleled megaphone on the social media platform X.

Having said that, Vance is already leading predictions for the 2028 Presidential Election. On Polymarket, he has a 10% lead on current second-placer Gavin Newsom.

Vance has a higher advantage over Newsom in Kalshi, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trailing in third place.

Manifold traders also have Vance on top. They are also predicting other names to prop up for the race.

Who are these other names, though? Maybe Musk is pulling a magic trick and running for the presidency? We never know.

🗣️ What the Media Says

A sudden spike in Vance’s odds would be expected if Musk publicly endorses him. Today’s reports are just rumors; these might not have a significant effect on polls just yet.

A potential Musk endorsement for Vance comes on the heels of a public reconciliation between the two. After a brief period of tension between Musk and the Trump Administration, Vance publicly called for a truce and urged Musk to return to the Republican fold.

Musk subsequently responded on X, calling Vance a "good guy through and through.”

As for Vance’s presidential aspirations, his current political position is a key factor in his favor. Analysts have noted that while some Vice Presidents may be overshadowed, Vance has been a visible and active figure.

Recent polling data from June 2025 also supports his strong position. An Emerson College poll found Vance leading the Republican field with 46% of the vote, far ahead of other potential candidates.

His chances are also bolstered by the constitutional inability of the current President to run for a third term, which clears the field of a major rival and positions Vance as the heir apparent to the MAGA movement.

Will a Musk endorsement cement Vance’s lead? We’re not sure, but we know that his fundraising wallets will be happy. 💰

🎾 Who Will Win the 2025 US Open?

We’re set for the last Grand Slam tournament of the year.

With Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek winning the Cincinnati Open, tennis elites now head to New York for the 2025 US Open.

The mixed doubles are ongoing, but the singles matches will begin on August 24. As such, prediction markets are already placing their bets.

On Polymarket, world #1 Jannik Sinner is at the top of the predictions for the men’s draw.

For the women’s draw, Aryna Sabalenka and Swiatek are tied for first. Sabalenka and Swiatek are first and second in the women’s rankings, respectively.

Kalshi traders almost mirror this sentiment. Check it out:

The frontrunners are in. But who will be the darkhorse candidates?

🔮 What the Odds Say

BetMGM has Sinner as a slight favorite at +100, with Alcaraz close behind at +140, showing much tighter odds.

Sabalenka leads across all major books at +250-275, followed by Swiatek at +300, and Coco Gauff at +600. The defending champion, Sabalenka, captured her first US Open title in straight sets in 2024, defeating Jessica Pegula 7-5, 7-5.

Sinner, the US Open defending champion, is gunning for a repeat. However, an illness forced him to pull out of the mixed doubles event. This has sparked notions that he might not be a hundred percent for the tourney.

Don’t count out the home favorites, too. Americans Taylor Fritz and Coco Gauff will have the crowd rooting for them all tournament long. Fritz reached the Finals last year, losing a three-set decision to Sinner.

Still, Sinner fans are absolutely excited to watch their champion defend the throne. But is he healthy enough to do it? We’ll see.