TDP #65: Trump Might Make History
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
President Donald Trump might just make history.
Trump recently ordered the removal of the Federal Reserve governor, Lisa Cook. There is no official announcement from both sides yet. But if this pushes forward, Trump could be the first president to fire a sitting Federal Reserve governor.
Of course, prediction markets are already buzzing about this possibility. You can position yourself in this market right now, along with other trending predictions.
— The Daily Prediction Team
Top Markets Today (August 26, 2025)
See the most trending markets on prediction platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.
By Volume
Prediction markets with the most trading activity.
Notable observation: Trading activity is going way up for the “September Fed decision” market. From only $46,370,719 yesterday (August 25), it has increased to $70,520,427 today. This might be your signal to join the party.
By Open Interest
Unresolved prediction markets with the most money at stake.
Notable observation: It’s not just the trading activity that’s surging for the “September Fed decision” market. People are also placing their money on this market. From $9,000,541 yesterday (August 25), this market added almost $5 million in money at stake today.
Top Trending News on Social Media
🪓 Will Trump Truly Fire a Fed Reserve Governor?
Trump just might make history soon. Highlight the word “might”, please.
Reuters reports Trump formally stated he was firing Fed Reserve governor Lisa Cook "for cause" over alleged mortgage fraud. This could mark a first-ever presidential firing of a sitting Fed governor.
But Cook is unfazed. She asserted that the president has no such legal authority.
So naturally, prediction markets are already pricing their positions. However, these odds might not be music to Trump’s ears.
On Polymarket, the odds of Cook being fired from her current Fed role are way below 50%.
Odds are up on Kalshi, but ever so slightly.
Manifold takes a different approach to this market, as it predicts whether Cook will be present at the Fed meeting this October.
Prediction traders believe that it’s likely Cook will remain on the Fed board this year. But what do analysts think?
🗣️ What Analysts Say
Would it be legal for Trump to fire a sitting Fed governor?
The Washington Post lays out the legal and institutional implications. The removal would be unprecedented and likely to trigger court challenges as Cook defends her position.
Time frames the move as politically motivated and a direct challenge to the Fed’s autonomy. This could be Trump’s way of reshaping monetary policy by changing the board’s composition.
However, Trump might be taking on a difficult ordeal.
Past instances of Fed governors leaving their posts have been due to resignations, term expirations, or, in rare cases, death. The most recent instance on record is former governor Adriana Kugler's departure, whose term ended this month.
Moreover, it might seem that this is just a pretext to open up another seat on the seven-member board for one of Trump’s appointees. It might be seen as part of his ongoing campaign to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates.
History is not on the side of Trump this time. Let’s see if he could pull it off.
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