TDP #67: Nvidia's Q2 2025 Earnings Report
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
All is well for the world’s most valuable company.
Nvidia has recently announced its financial results, which have increased even further, thanks to the AI market. Their shares did slip initially after the reports, as the company’s data center revenue disappointed several investors.
We’ll discuss more of Nvidia’s plight, but let’s look at the top markets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless first.
— The Daily Prediction Team
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💻 Mixed Reception for Nvidia’s Earnings Report
Nvidia's earnings reports beat top and bottom-line expectations, with a record revenue of $46.7 billion and earnings of $1.05 per share.
However, the market’s initial reaction was a selloff. The stock slipped almost 2% in premarket trading on August 28.
It’s also interesting to see how prediction markets reacted to Nvidia’s report. On Polymarket, Nvidia is still way ahead of Microsoft and Apple for the largest company award next month. Yet, its probability has gone down ever so slightly.
On the other hand, Manifold traders are still bullish on Nvidia, even after Halloween.
So, despite the initial market dip, Nvidia has this under control. But what are the analysts saying about this?
🔎 Current Nvidia Snapshot
Nvidia’s $4.4 trillion market cap now leads Microsoft by roughly $700 billion. It’s the widest valuation gap yet.
By market cap, Nvidia is still miles ahead of Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Amazon. It did sustain a 1.35% dip today, but it remains to be seen if this downward trend will continue.
Probably not.
So, how did Nvidia get these mixed signals from the market?
While the data center division generated a record $41.1 billion in revenue, it slightly missed the sky-high analyst expectation of $41.3 billion. For a stock that has soared on the back of its data center business, even a minor shortfall was enough to spook investors and lead to a pullback.
Then, there’s the China-related uncertainty.
Nvidia’s revenue forecast for the third quarter did not include any H20 shipments to China due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and export restrictions. This created a cloud of uncertainty, as it signals a potential slowdown in a major market.
Nvidia’s earnings initially led to a chip-sector drop. But CEO Jensen Huang saved the day. His forecast of $3–4 trillion in AI infrastructure spending lifted sentiment. Broadcom and others followed higher.
Despite the initial jitters, Nvidia's guidance for Q3 revenue of $54.0 billion (plus or minus 2%) still surpassed analysts' forecasts of $53.1 billion. The company also reiterated its expectation to exit the fiscal year with gross margins in the mid-70% range.
Moreover, the board's approval of an additional $60 billion in share buybacks also shows management's confidence.
Here’s a stream that captured immediate market reactions to Nvidia’s earnings report:
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