TDP #69: US Open Reaches the Quarterfinal Stages
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
The last major tennis tournament of the year is entering the quarterfinal stages this week.
With the fourth round of the US Open underway, some of the favorites in New York have been knocked out. Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka are still in the running, and more top names are aiming to book a seat in the quarterfinals.
Tennis and sports fans, this Monday’s newsletter is for you. 🎾
— The Daily Prediction Team
Top Markets Today (September 1, 2025)
See the most trending markets on prediction platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.
By Volume
Prediction markets with the most trading activity.
Notable observation: There are no changes in the Top 5 prediction markets (by volume) since Friday last week (August 29). The “September Fed decision” is still gradually increasing in trading activity, though. Expect this to be the status quo, especially with the next Fed meeting just two weeks away.
By Open Interest
Unresolved prediction markets with the most money at stake.
Notable observation: In terms of money at stake, the “September Fed decision” market is stacking cash as we speak. From $10,287,082 last Friday, it has increased to $11,023,973 today. It’s a remarkable feat that will gain more attention in the next couple of weeks.
Top Trending News on Social Media
🎾 Alcaraz and Sabalenka Move To the Quarters
Round 4 of the US Open is underway, and this is when most tennis fans price in their predictions for the finalists.
Women’s top-ranked player Aryna Sabalenka just defeated Cristina Bucsa in straight sets to advance into the quarterfinals. She’ll face Marketa Vondrousova, who just defeated 9th-ranked Elena Rybakina.
On the men’s side, World #2 Carlos Alcaraz shook off injury concerns by winning his assignment against Arthur Rinderknech. The Spaniard is off to the quarters to go up against Jiri Lehecka.
As such, prediction markets are already trending with bets from the tennis space. On Polymarket, Alcaraz is still trailing World #1 Jannik Sinner, with veteran Novak Djokovic trailing way behind.
Interestingly, Kalshi traders have the same exact sentiment on this market.
For the women’s draw, Sabalenka and 2nd-ranked Iga Swiatek are much closer to each other. World #3 Coco Gauff places third, at least from an odds standpoint.
If you go to Kalshi, you’ll find the same odds, save for a 1% increase on Swiatek’s chances.
Meanwhile, you can also place your predictions on each match in the US Open. For example, Manifold offers this market for ongoing matches.
🏆 Is The Path Easier For the Top Seeds?
The top two seeds for each draw are still alive, but there were surprise exits early on. Take, for example, the 3rd-ranked Alexander Zverev, who lost in four sets to Felix Augur-Aliassime in the third round.
Other notable exits from the men’s draw include Ben Shelton (6th), Daniil Medvedev (13th), Tommy Paul (14th), and Francis Tiafoe (17th).
For the women’s draw, 2nd-ranked Swiatek and 3rd-ranked Gauff will have their fourth-round matchup today. Along with Sabalenka, 4th-ranked Jessica Pegula has also qualified for the quarterfinals.
Big names who have already been knocked out in the women’s draw include Mirra Andreeva (5th), Jasmine Paolini (7th), and Rybakina (9th).
Of course, these things happen in tennis, especially at the US Open, when most players are already physically drained from competing in various tournaments throughout the year. Some of them are hampered by injuries, like in the case of the American bet Ben Shelton.
Speaking of Americans, 4th-ranked Taylor Fritz is still in the running. He’s the only American left in the draw, but his next task will be no easy feat. He’ll face 7th-ranked Novak Djokovic, who has won the US Open four times.
And Djokovic’s all-time record here? 94-14. 94 wins, that’s a lot.
Djokovic is already 38 years of age now, though. Plus, he has been battling some injury concerns this tournament.
With the home crowd backing him up, Fritz just might have a chance at making the semifinals. He’s been to the final of the US Open in 2024, so let’s see if he has what it takes to go all the way this time.
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