TDP #70: Trump Shuts Down Health Concerns
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
After a week-long chatter about his health, US President Donald Trump finally addressed the rumors.
Is it a good or a bad update? Well, he’s making an announcement in the Oval Office today, so that’s a sign.
We’ll talk more about Trump’s health (and presidency below), along with the top trending prediction markets today.
But first, a brief announcement from us.
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Top Markets Today (September 2, 2025)
See the most trending markets on prediction platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.
By Volume
Prediction markets with the most trading activity.
Notable observation: The Fed decision in September is still the talk of the town on prediction markets. In terms of trading activity, it has grown from $54,464,216 yesterday (September 1) to $56,064,567. Expect more of the same, as traders might be changing their positions as we near the September 16 Fed meeting.
By Open Interest
Unresolved prediction markets with the most money at stake.
Notable observation: The “September Fed decision” market is still stacking up the cash by the day. During the weekend, the amount at stake increased by almost $1 million. From yesterday, it increased, albeit steadily, by another $200,000.
Top Trending News on Social Media
👱 Is the President Okay?
Over the Labor Day weekend, the internet tried to bury the lede. And yes, the US president.
Rumors sparked after a flurry of “Trump is dead” hashtags, bruised-hand photos, and a mysterious 2 PM ET Oval Office slot on today’s schedule. Yet, Trump surfaced on the golf course and on Truth Social to insist he’s “never felt better.”
But hey, prediction markets are still defiant that there could be an impact from all these rumors. On Manifold, there’s already a market going on about Trump possibly dying or falling seriously ill before his term ends in 2029.
The probability is under 50%, but 26% is no joke, either. There’s real traction here.
For the short-term, though? Prediction markets might not be more inclined.
On Polymarket, there’s a market for the ouster or resignation of Trump as president in 2025.
Kalshi traders also have the same bearish sentiment.
🤔 How Did We Get Here?
A week of photos highlighting a bruised right hand (and earlier ankle swelling) coincided with a long weekend without public events for Trump. So, of course, people quickly lost their minds and buzzed about a possible Trump resignation.
But then, Trump was photographed golfing in Sterling, Virginia, yesterday.
A White House statement today revealed that Trump had been diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency (CVI). This is probably the cause of that famous bruise in his right hand. But Vice President J.D. Vance said it would not impact Trump’s ability to govern.
The White House doctor also said that Trump “remains in excellent health.” CVI can cause swelling or discoloration without leading to organ failure.
And yet, health cover-ups for US presidents have a precedent. As noted in a deep dive by RNZ News, these cover-ups have created a culture of public skepticism.
The example of past presidents, like Grover Cleveland, who secretly had jaw surgery, shows that transparency around presidential health might not be transparent at all.
That could be emphasized even more in the current media environment of instant information and social media. Any attempt to manage a president's public image and health status is immediately subjected to intense scrutiny.
We’ll know more as the days go by. But of course, we’re wishing everyone good health. That’s the most important thing. 🙏
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The clock is ticking fast. You might want to place your predictions on these markets. Quickly.
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