TDP #75: US Cuts Jobs, Shutdown Next?
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
Several major themes are standing out in today’s prediction platforms. The first is the end-game of the Norwegian election, with markets on Polymarket seeing a massive surge in volume as they approach their resolution dates.
The second major theme is the relentless focus on the future of artificial intelligence. On Manifold, the most liquid and heavily traded markets revolve around the long-term potential of AI.
Then the third? A potential US government shutdown.
Voter energy, a years-long arc of tech development, and pessimism on leadership. This is about to become interesting.
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Deep Dives
Analyze the trading odds and activities on today’s top trending markets on prediction platforms. (Click on the title to go directly to the market)
Turnout in 2025 Norwegian Parliamentary Election? (Polymarket - Nearing Review)
Volume: $158,484 | Resolution: September 8, 2025
This market is nearing review, given that the Norwegian Parliamentary Election has been completed.
Early results and press reports signaled very high participation. One outlet put turnout at 78.9%, the strongest since 1989. True enough, 99% of Polymarket traders chose the 78-81% range.
Traders gravitated to upper turnout brackets as the “energy” narrative set in. We’re just waiting for the resolution of this market via the Valg website.
Norway Election: Red vs. Blue Bloc Margin of Victory (Polymarket - Active)
Volume: $284,608 | Resolution: February 28, 2026 (or when the election results are fully revealed)
As the final results for the Norwegian election approach, this market is seeing a massive influx of last-minute bets. With a staggering 595% increase in 24-hour trading activity, this market is capturing the final, frenzied pulse of public opinion.
Government Shutdown This Year? (Kalshi - Active)
Volume: $917,414 | Resolution: January 1, 2026
The market’s consistent trading and high liquidity reflect the ongoing concern and political risk tied to government funding. Appropriations headlines and September timelines keep pulling traders back in.
The number of unique traders (223) indicates a broad base of interest and a lack of consensus, with traders holding different views on the likelihood of a fiscal showdown.
Kalshi’s regulated setup attracts hedgers who want crisp, binary exposure tied to calendar triggers.
Will a Company Other Than OpenAI, xAI, and Google Top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025? (Manifold - Active)
Total Liquidity: $1,000 | Unique Traders: 51 | Resolution: December 31, 2025
This market shows that people are keeping an eye on the AI race. Most importantly, there’s real traction for traders looking outside the Top 3 AI development companies.
Sure, OpenAI, xAI, and Google are still grabbing the headlines. Yet, traders might be looking at dark-horse competitors to join the race. Anthropic, Mistral AI, and IBM Watson could be in there if they just get a prime-time opportunity.
In Early 2028, Will an AI Be Able To Generate a Full High-Quality Movie To a Prompt? (Manifold - Active)
Total Liquidity: $21,000 | Unique Traders: 3,900 | Resolution: 2028
We told you, people are keeping an eye on AI.
The massive number of unique traders (3,900) shows that this is a conversation piece, a narrative arc that has captured the imagination of the entire community.
And mind you, there is a realistic pathway for this market.
OpenAI’s Sora can already do minute-long, high-fidelity clips; Google’s Veo 3 adds 1080p and vertical support with falling costs. Longer, stitched scenes keep improving.
Watch for multi-scene story tools, long-context video models, and a public demo that controls characters and audio across acts. These features could advance AI-generated movies in the near future.
Quick Hits
Here’s a quick list of markets that could pique your unique interests.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August 2025? (Finance)
August CPI and YoY brackets trade into Thursday’s release window. Expect tighter spreads by Wednesday afternoon as desk-level hedgers square risk. Resolution: September 11, 2025.Solana above ___ on September 10? (Crypto)
The crypto world is still on the radar. These markets continue to be a go-to for traders looking to get a read on short-term price movements and collective sentiment. Resolution: September 10, 2025.Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025? (Politics)
This market is a classic attention magnet, blending high-profile figures with a contentious policy idea, and is seeing significant liquidity. Resolution: December 31, 2025.
Final Take
From the immediate outcome of an election to the far-off horizon of AI, these platforms are becoming a living, breathing map of what we collectively believe is most important. They tell us that our attention isn't just on what is happening, but on what we think will happen next.
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