TDP #78: EuroBasket Finals
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️ Editor’s note:
EuroBasket 2025 is coming to a close, with two semifinal games underway.
As of writing, Germany is battling Finland, with Greece taking on Turkey later on. The Germans are the favorites to win the tournament, especially with traditional powerhouses Serbia, France, and Spain knocked out early.
Of course, prediction markets are still echoing the shocking death of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Different markets have propped up, as people try to resolve who was responsible, when they’ll be caught, and what the political fallout will be.
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Deep Dives
Analyze the trading odds and activities on today’s top trending markets on prediction platforms. (Click on the title to go directly to the market)
What Was the Political Lean of the Person Who Shot Charlie Kirk? (Manifold - Active)
Unique traders: 263 | Total liquidity: $2,000 | Resolution: November 10, 2025
Traders here are clustering around “left-wing extremist” or “radical ideologue” theories. Momentum is driven by news leaks (e.g. bullet casings with political inscriptions).
People are curious regarding the suspicion that violent opposition to Kirk’s views wasn’t random but ideological. The market seems less split on whether it was politically motivated. It’s more on which side did it.
2025 EuroBasket Championship Winner (Polymarket - Active)
Volume: $818,851 | Resolution: September 15, 2025
Led by veteran scoring guard Dennis Schroder, the Germans are on track to win it all this year. Young star Franz Wagner is also a consistent force, averaging 21.0 points in seven games.
As of writing, Germany is winning against Finland, 84-73, with eight minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Finnish squad is mounting a comeback, but it might ultimately fall short.
On the other end of the bracket, Greece will take on the rising Turkey. It will be an exciting matchup between NBA stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Alperen Sengun. Polymarket traders are split almost 50-50 in this matchup, though.
2025 EuroBasket MVP (Polymarket - Active)
Volume: $35,969 | Resolution: September 15, 2025
In these short-burst tournaments, the MVP award almost always goes to the best player of the winning team. That’s also why the current frontrunners in Polymarket are composed of names battling it out in the semifinals.
For reference, let’s list down the important statistics for each MVP candidate:
Franz Wagner (Germany): 21.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.9 assists
Alperen Sengun (Turkey): 21.6 points, 10.9 rebounds, 7.1 assists
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece): 29.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists
Dennis Schroder (Germany): 20.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists
What Price Will Solana Hit in September? (Polymarket - Active)
Volume: $2,271,811 | Resolution: October 1, 2025
This market is riding the wave. Solana has been rallying, breaking resistance, and drawing in institutional interest.
Analysts point to ~$250 as a realistic target. The market is betting that the upward trend continues, but there’s a lot riding on whether the $230-235 resistance holds.
Quick Hits
Here’s a quick list of markets that could pique your unique interests.
"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score? (Culture)
Reviews for the film, which just premiered at the Venice and Toronto film festivals, have been mixed. The consensus seems to be that while Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson gives a career-best performance, the film itself falls short of its potential. Resolution: October 6, 2025.Harvey Weinstein prison time? (Politics)
Weinstein was recently found guilty of a felony sex crime in New York but acquitted on another charge. The market on his prison time reflects the public's continued attention on the #MeToo movement and its legal aftermath. Resolution: December 31, 2025.2025 Emmy for best drama? (Culture)
This entertainment market is getting attention after Rotten Tomatoes dropped their predictions. While volume is much lower than political/crypto markets, it reflects steady cultural engagement. Resolution: September 16, 2025.
Final Take
What ties all these threads is belief in trajectories, whether political, financial, or cultural. We are a society that increasingly uses these platforms to gauge the future of our culture and economy, turning every tweet, every price change, and every movie review into a high-stakes question of collective belief.
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