The $1 Trade: New COVID Variants?
See what's trending—before it happens.
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✍️Editor’s Note: Welcome to the Playground
A familiar (dreadful) topic is trending again.
On X, users are sharing personal stories about recent COVID-19 infections and vaccine experiences. These stories are fueled by reports of a seasonal uptick in COVID cases.
Are there new COVID variants late this year? Prediction markets are already talking about these possibilities.
Speaking of prediction markets, you can put your skills to the test with Groovy Market. “Season 1: The Draft” lets you create prediction markets, complete quests on Zealy, and earn rewards.
Whether you’re a community builder, trader, creator, or enthusiast, the Groovy Market Playground is waiting for you.
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— The $1 Trade Team
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Deep Dives 🏊♂️
Analyze the trading odds and activities on today’s top trending markets on prediction platforms. (Click on the title to go directly to the market)
COVID New Variant of Concern Reported This Year? (Kalshi - Active)
Market volume: 1,000+ | Resolution: January 1, 2026
The “Stratus” and “Nimbus” COVID variants are dominating market chatter this fall. CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) pages are showing mixed national signals, but the public’s concern is going up.
Some publications are already pointing to Stratus and Nimbus as new variants. However, this market on Kalshi relies on a formal announcement from the CDC. So far, they haven’t made the announcement yet.
But with the recent uptick in cases, there’s a possibility that the CDC will announce a new variant soon. If you’re bullish on CDC, you can place your prediction on Groovy Market.
You can click on the picture below to go directly to the market, or sign up for the Groovy Market Playground here: https://playground.groovy.market/
Who Will Be TIME Magazine’s 2025 Person of the Year? (Manifold - Active)
Unique traders: 1,200+ | Total liquidity: 46,000+ | Resolution: December 11, 2025
Artificial Intelligence could still lose this race this year.
Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost) is closing the gap on AI, at least in this Manifold race for the Time Magazine’s 2025 Person of the Year award.
Yes, the field tilts toward AI as a concept, with politics and religion close behind. This reflects 2025’s attention stack of AI, geopolitics, and culture wars.
With the strong candidates in the list, is there a possibility for the award to be shared by two names? If you share this vibe, you can place your prediction on Groovy Market.
You can click on the picture below to go directly to the prediction market, or sign up for the Groovy Market Playground here: https://playground.groovy.market/
How Long Will the Government Shutdown Last? (Kalshi - Active)
Volume: $2,539,674 | Resolution: January 1, 2026
New odds point to a three-week standoff, potentially prolonging this US government shutdown.
Kalshi traders are watching thin negotiating calendars and weekend headlines. Equities remain calm, but media outlets are echoing the possibility of the shutdown spanning more than 20 days.
Yet, you can be an outlier in all this chaos and see the light at the end of the tunnel this week. Do you feel that the government can provide answers and end the shutdown by Friday? On Groovy Market, you can check if you got the right vibe.
You can click on the picture below to go directly to the market, or sign up for the Playground here: https://playground.groovy.market/
Quick Hits ⚡
Here’s a quick list of markets that could pique your unique interests.
French election called by...? (Politics)
78% odds for December 31. Geopolitical nerves, with traders betting on timing like waiting for a storm. Resolution: December 31, 2025Will an AI solve Navier-Stokes and make it public before 20 October 2025? (Tech)
Only 2% chance, as skepticism reigns despite Google buzz. Resolution: October 19, 2025.When will Bitcoin hit $150k? (Crypto)
48% odds for BTC hitting $150,000 before February 2026. Crypto enthusiasts are hopeful amid the current crypto surge. Resolution: February 2026.
Final Take
In a day where X threads on COVID remind us of our fragility, these markets aren’t just bets. They’re real-time conversations on real happenings.
From crypto highs to health lows, it’s the human element that truly forecasts the future.
Stay curious, predict wisely.
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