The Week in Prediction Markets #14 | Mar 12-Mar 28, 2026
Curated news and articles on Prediction Markets 🔮
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the NY Stock Exchange, announced an investment of up to $2B in Polymarket. Link
US lawmakers move to ban sports betting on prediction markets. Link
Lawmakers have introduced five different bills this year to regulate prediction markets. Link
Prediction market rivals Shayne Coplan and Tarek Mansour back a new venture fund. Link
Kalshi launches a whistleblower function to identify insider trading. Link
Polymarket announced new market integrity rules across its CFTC-regulated US exchange and DeFi platform. Link
Kalshi partners with ARK Invest to launch research markets. Link
The top 1% of traders on Polymarket generate ~75% of total platform volume. Link
Polymarket’s active user trajectory mirrors early-stage growth patterns seen on major centralized exchanges. Link
Retail traders perform worse on prediction markets than on sportsbooks, according to new research. Link
Castle Labs published a breakdown of Polymarket’s fee structure. Link
Estimated Polymarket revenue under the current fee structure ranges between $800K and $1M per day. Link
Unusual Whales released an MCP that gives Claude direct access to prediction market data. Link
Polymarket expanded its referral program to all traders with more than $10K in volume. Link
Polymarket introduced a full-stack template for building prediction market applications. Link
Messari's research on Polymarket (POLY) potential valuation. Link
Is Polymarket a Retail Product or a Pro Trading Venue? Link
You Are the Exit Liquidity for AI agents on Polymarket. Link
Polymarket Fee Rollout: Revenue Impact and Market Implications. Link
The most important participant in a prediction market is an insider trader. Link
📅 Events
Prediction Conference is happening in Las Vegas during April 22–24. Link
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