The Week in Prediction Markets #18 - Feb 11-Feb 18, 2026

Curated news and articles on Prediction Markets 🔮

• The current state of prediction markets: sector map by Stacy Muur (link)

• $1T in prediction market volume by 2030? (link)

• Kalshi reaches ~$3B weekly volume, up from ~$100M YoY (link)

• Paradigm critiques Kalshi’s claims on non-sports growth (link)

• eToro shares rise following prediction market move (link)

• Study shows top 1% of Polymarket users capture 84% of profits, mostly at the expense of casual traders (link)

• Should Polymarket airdrop tokens only to those who lost money, proportional to their losses? (link)

• Will prediction markets pull traders from perps? (link)

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• Polymarket just cleared $500M+ in weekly geopolitics volume - a new ATH (link)

• Open interest composition differences: Kalshi vs Polymarket (link)

• Polymarket weekly fees approach $7M (link)

  

• Academics introduce Adjudication Risk Index introduced for Polymarket resolutions (link)

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• Polymarket launches $5M bug bounty program (link)

• “Nothing Ever Happens” bot auto-buys No across non-sports markets (link)

• Kalshi teases upcoming update: “something new” (link)

• ~300 projects live in Polymarket Builders Program (link)

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• Prediction markets: they grow up so fast (link)

• Anatomy of Polymarket’s fastest markets (link)

• Why AMMs failed in prediction markets (link)

• From betting to trading: Kalshi’s impact on sports markets (link)

• The Dark Horse of Prediction Markets (link)

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📅 Events

• Prediction Conference is happening in Las Vegas during April 22–24 (link)

• Philly Forecasting & Prediction Markets Meetup April 30th (link)
  

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