The Week in Prediction Markets #2 — Dec 21–27, 2025
Curated news on Prediction Markets 🔮
📰 News
Vitalik Buterin: PREDICTION MARKETS ARE BETTER TOOLS
Source: Fascaster DL News covers Vitalik’s view that prediction markets are no riskier than stocks
Critique argues “healthier prediction markets” only exist in theory
Brian Armstrong says prediction markets fall under the CFTC
President Trump says prediction markets are not gambling
Financial Times examines Kalshi’s “truth machine” framing
🧱 Project Updates
Kalshi announces its first Prediction Markets Conference for March 2026
Kalshi launches Kalshi Research for academic access to internal data
Tarek Mansour comments on the launch of Kalshi Research
Kalshi enables deposits via BSC
Rainbow Wallet integrates Polymarket on iOS
Trepa is building scalar prediction markets
📊 Markets / Data
Weekly notional volume on prediction markets reaches $4B
Opinion hits ATH in users, transactions, and open interest
Kalshi records a new ATH in notional volume on Dec 21
How much capital backs prediction markets’ mindshare?
🚀 Launches
DraftKings Predictions go live in 38 states
DraftKings launches its own prediction markets product
California and DraftKings clash again
How to launch a prediction market and still be the house
🧵 Threads / Reads
“The price is the product” essay on prediction markets
Are we on a potential prediction market aggregator war?
Take on gambling as intent rather than structure
Culture as the next growth vector for prediction markets
“Party Monster” article on manipulated metrics in regulated markets
Thread on how prediction markets can be manipulated
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