The Week in Prediction Markets #20 - Apr 26 - May 02, 2026
Curated news and articles on Prediction Markets 🔮
Brazil blocks Kalshi, Polymarket in sweeping ban citing investor protections - link
Polymarket upgraded with $pUSD, a new order book, lower gas fees, and $1M in liquidity rewards - link
Kalshi completes first block trade, backed by Jump Trading - link
Polymarket seeks full CFTC approval for its main platform - link
The fascinating history of prediction markets in the US - link
Bloomberg reports most traders are losing money, and a significant amount in many cases, on Polymarket - link
Andrew Courtney points out errors on Bloomberg's article- link
Is UMA oracle system being corrupted by self-interested traders? - link
Polymarket Builders enables builder fees on orders routed through other apps - link
Did Polymarket just change its mind about insider trading? - link
List of prediction markets events during NY Tech Week - link
Kalshi owns the majority of prediction market volume. They've held +50% market share for all of April 2026, eroding Polymarket's lead - link
Polymarket breaks $500M in TVL for the first time since the 2024 US election peak - link
Identifying Smart Money from Polymarket’s New Collateral Token pUSD - link
What the data tells about wash trading on Polymarket - link
Who really drives volume on Polymarket? - link
30%+ of Redeems are now Auto-Redeemed on Polymarket - link
One tap trading is live on 5m and 15m crypto markets on Polymarket - link
A Second Identity: Prediction Markets as Financial Derivatives - link
HIP-4: The Business Case for Outcome Markets - link
Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything? - link
The Start of DeFi on Prediction Market - link
Legibility: When insider trading becomes a national security issue, not just a financial one - link
Prediction markets have an inescapable insider trading problem - link
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on The Case for Prediction Markets - link
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