The Week in Prediction Markets #4 — Jan 04–Jan 10, 2026
Curated news and articles on Prediction Markets 🔮
📰 News
Kalshi CEO says the company supports legislation banning government officials from insider trading on prediction markets - link
Polymarket becomes Official & Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of the New York Rangers - link
Polymarket becomes exclusive Prediction Market Partner of the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones - link
Polymarket named the exclusive prediction market partner of the Golden Globes - link
Crypto becomes Kalshi’s second-largest category, with 40% MoM growth - link
BUT, crypto still represents only 2.5% of total Kalshi volume - link
Polymarket appears to be introducing trading fees of up to 3% - link
More on insider trading risks in prediction markets - link
📊 Markets / Data
Prediction markets nearly matched Pump.fun weekly volume, still ~4× smaller - link
New all-time high for Kalshi notional trading volume - link
On Kalshi’s annualized trading volume: “annualizing six (6) days of volume is an extreme extrapolation” - link
Average American betting size:
1.5% of Polymarket all-time volume tied to bets on Elon Musk tweeting frequency - link
Jupiter’s prediction market integration struggles to drive and monetize volume - link
🚀 Launches
First prediction market trading competition on Solana with $5,000 prize pool - link
Prediction markets go live inside the Phantom wallet - link
Predict launches 15-minute BTC up/down markets - link
Delphi partners with Polymarket to launch markets based on its Year Ahead report - link
🧱 Project Updates
Predict teases lending against open market positions - link
Kalshi explores a high-volume sports bettor program similar to traditional sportsbooks - link
Polymarket partners with Parcl to launch real estate prediction markets - link
🧵 Threads / Reads
CoinGecko guide on getting started with Polymarket - link
Full list of prediction market startups that raised in 2025 - link
The “Dustin Gouker effect” on Kalshi - link
Prediction markets framed as a new Turing Test for AI agents and bots - links
Bots running arbitrage strategies on Polymarket - links
Article: Deep dive on the origins of copy trading on Polymarket - link
List of top Kalshi creators by Web3Lists - link
Bot trading Polymarket via market correlations hits 54 consecutive wins - link
Seven predictions for prediction markets - link
Article: How to make money trading on Kalshi - link
Live trading challenge: turning $100 into $1,000 - link
📬 BEFORE YOU GO — SUBSCRIBE, FOLLOW, WATCH
Follow @DollarTrade on X
And subscribe to the newsletter
Livestream comes back on Mon, Jan 12.
Thanks for riding with us!