The Week in Prediction Markets #7 — Jan 25–Jan 31, 2026
A fast recap of the latest developments across prediction markets. 🔮
Prediction markets appear in The New York Times, with mention markets referenced — link
CFTC withdraws proposed ban on political and sports-related event contracts, removing a key regulatory threat to US prediction markets — link
Kalshi’s Fed forecasts match Wall Street accuracy, according to a Bloomberg-covered study — link
Polymarket reaches an all-time high in active wallets with ~66% user retention — link
Coalition for Prediction Markets launches a pro-regulation marketing campaign — link
Kalshi conducts a compliance-focused PR tour amid prediction market backlash — link
Tennessee Sports Wagering Council sends cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi, Polymarket, and crypto platforms — link
Commentary on Polymarket’s recent clickbait-driven attention strategy — link
Additional commentary on the same attention dynamic — link
Prediction markets do not aggregate information uniformly — link
Silver trading on Polymarket hits $5M in single-day volume — link
Kalshi open interest grows 4× to $410M over the last six months — link
Insider activity accelerates on the “next Fed Chair” market on Polymarket — link
Phantom is the most successful wallet-embedded prediction market distribution so far — link
What do we think of markets that are purely luck-based — link
Profile of a Polymarket trader reporting a 99% win rate — link
Discussion on oracle complaints affecting Polymarket — link
Exploration of revenue flows related to UMA in prediction markets — link
Coinbase launches prediction markets powered by Kalshi — link
Space releases a beta version of leveraged prediction markets on Solana — link
Pandora Parlays for Polymarket is launching this Monday — link
Kalshinomics adds filters for liquidity and volume incentives — link
Polymarket announces a partnership with MLS — link
Kalshi increases referral bonuses from $10 to $25 — link
Kalshi opens a role for a crypto-native UI designer — link
Polysights opens applications for an intern role — link
Article: Polymarket Will Need Its Own Chain — link
Article: How manipulable prediction markets are — link
Article: Implied Leverage: The Prediction Market Superpower Nobody Names — link
Article: How to profit from volatility and market mispricing on Polymarket — link
Overview of Polymarket GitHub repositories for builders and traders — link
Article on building a trading assistant with ClawdBot — link
Tools for predicting temperature outcomes on Polymarket — link
Research: What political campaigns can learn from prediction markets — link
Article: Benchmarking Grok’s accuracy in resolving prediction markets — link
How To Trade Prediction Market Inefficiencies ($20,000/Month) — link
Article: Pricing analysis of the Greenland acquisition market — link
Article: Prediction Markets Are Attention Labor Markets — link
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